According to the Chinese zodiac, it’s the Year of the Tiger; but in NFL sports betting this season, it’s most certainly the Year of the Dog.
The first half of the season has traditionally been kind to dogs over the last few years; the teams that got points won at a 54.5% clip between 2015 and 2021.
Things tend to go south for underdogs in the second half, but there will always be a few pups prime for the picking each week. Here’s a look at our top three underdogs for Week 9.
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Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints +2.5 (-110)
It appears that the Saints might finally be getting it together – especially on defense. New Orleans is coming off a 24-0 decimation of the Raiders, in a game where they held the red-hot Josh Jacobs to a paltry 43 yards on the ground.
This was the kind of defense expected from Dennis Allen’s squad, and it seems they might finally be hitting their stride. The run D will be tested again this week against the Ravens’ 2nd-ranked ground game (165.6).
The Saints have put up points since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback. Last week’s 24-spot was their lowest total in the previous five games, but they have a juicy matchup this week against Baltimore’s surprisingly poor defense.
The Ravens have been a perennial powerhouse on D but rank near the bottom of the league in most categories this year. The pass defense has been particularly bad, allowing 266.8 YPG (28th) – good news for the Saints’ 8th-ranked air attack (253.1).
Another factor that makes this a tasty home dog is that the Ravens love to play in close games. While they might be the better team in this game, don’t expect a blowout. Baltimore is 3-2 in its last five games, with each decided by an average of 3.4 points.
Prediction: Saints win 27-26
Indianapolis Colts +5.5 at New England Patriots (-110)
You’ll have to hold your nose when you bet on the Colts this week, but to be fair, you’d have to do the same to back the Patriots.
Both teams are in disarray right now, from the benching of Matt Ryan to the quarterback controversy in New England to the firing of Colts’ offensive coordinator Marcus Brady.
Things can’t get much worse for Indy this year, but its defense has actually played pretty good ball as of late. The Colts have been getting after the quarterback in recent weeks, tallying 12 sacks in the last four games. That bodes well against Mac Jones, who has been sacked 11 times in his five starts and has been abysmal at taking care of the football (seven picks, two fumbles).
The Pats escaped New York with a W last week, despite being outgained by 99 yards by the Jets. That came off a humiliating Monday night home loss to the Chicago Bears the previous week. Jones has decidedly taken a step back this year, and the Pats have more questions than answers at QB.
Things look a bit grim for both squads at the moment, and 5.5 points is way too big of a spread in this one.
Prediction: Patriots win 23-20
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Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders +3 (-110)
Say what you will about the Commanders, but they’ve climbed to a 4-4 record in the best division in the NFL. Taylor Heinicke has taken the reins at QB and produced back-to-back nail-biter wins over the Colts and Packers.
The team has won three in a row, and Ron Rivera’s defense allowed just 14.7 points per game in that span.
Minnesota sits atop the NFC North with a 6-1 record but is just 3-4 ATS this season. We all know Kirk Cousins shines at home in that 1 p.m. timeslot, but it’s been a different story on the road and in primetime situations. While this isn’t a primetime game, it still feels like a classic Cousins letdown waiting to happen.
It might seem like a sell-high situation with Washington after three straight wins, but we still think they’ll keep it close in this one. Defensive superstar Chase Young has returned to practice after a year-long absence (torn ACL), and there’s optimism in the air in the nation’s capital.
Prediction: Vikings win 24-23
