The NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds have been a rollercoaster this season.
The current favorite, Geno Smith, wasn’t even in the conversation back in September. Early sportsbook favorites like Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield now look comical.
Saquon Barkley is hot on Smith’s heels for the CPOY, with a few more notables still in the mix. Here’s a look at the current odds as we enter the post-Thanksgiving homestretch.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: The Favorites
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year award is one of the trickier bets.
The honor is given not just to the best statistical performance but to a player that shows perseverance and overcomes a significant amount of adversity. And it’s all decided by a panel of nationwide media votes.
To scoop up the hardware, a player usually needs to be insignificant in the previous season due to abysmal performance, a terrible injury, or in Michael Vick’s case in 2010 – a prison sentence.
This year a journeyman backup quarterback has risen from the ashes to lead the way. Here’s a look at his case and the other top candidates.
Geno Smith -165 DK
Nobody saw this one coming. Geno Smith, former second-round bust and perennial backup QB, is suddenly one of the best quarterbacks in football.
The Seahawks seemed destined to tank this season and snag a top-tier QB from next year’s NFL Draft – one of the most promising QB drafts in recent history. But Geno didn’t get the memo. The 32-year-old pivot has led the Seahawks to a division-leading 6-4 record and has racked up the stats on the way.
Smith has a league-leading (other-worldly) 72.8 completion percentage and owns the NFL’s second-highest quarterback rating (Tua Tagovailoa). The former New York Jet has also thrown fewer interceptions (4) than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert.
It truly is a bizarro world. Everyone keeps waiting for Smith to turn back into a pumpkin, but so far, it just hasn’t happened.
Saquon Barkley +175 FD
Barkley looked like the next big thing when he entered the league in 2018. The former Penn State prodigy ran through opposing defenses with alacrity on his way to offensive rookie of the year honors.
And then the injury bug bit – and bit hard. A torn ACL derailed Barkley’s career in 2020, and he could never get back on track. Until now. The still 25-year-old has barreled his way to 992 rushing yards by Thanksgiving.
He’s neck-and-neck for the rushing title with Derrick Henry – a bet producing 50-1 odds before the season started. Barkley hasn’t played an entire season since his rookie campaign. If he stays healthy this season, he could be hoisting the CPOY award come February.
Derrick Henry +2000 FD, DK
King Henry has been a man amongst boys since earning the starting running back role for the Tennessee Titans in 2018. The bruising back claimed his second consecutive rushing title in 2020 when he became just the eighth player in NFL history to run for 2,000 yards (2,027).
He was well on his way to winning three straight titles last season until a broken foot sidelined him after eight weeks. Henry was slow out of the gate this year and had pundits aplenty throwing out phrases like “lost a step” and “running back cliff.”
Fast forward to the present day, and the same RB on the decline now leads the league in rushing and has hit the 1,000 mark with seven games remaining.
Henry’s odds to win CPOY seem bloated at +2000. The NFL is a fickle beast, and an injury or two could propel The King to the frontrunner at any time. There’s massive value in these odds right now at DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Players still in the mix
With seven games remaining in the season, anything is possible in the NFL. If you want to take a flyer on one of the long shots, some inflated odds are floating around.
Christian McCaffrey +4000 DK
McCaffrey has bounced back from a devasting ACL injury with aplomb. The dynamic back is just getting started this year after a midseason trade that landed him in a favorable position with the 49ers.
Travis Etienne +5000 FD
Etienne missed his entire rookie season thanks to a Lisfranc injury. The former first-rounder hit the ground running this year, showing why he was the 25th overall pick. The pass-catching back has closed in on 1,000 total yards through 10 games.
Daniel Jones +20000 FD
In likely his last chance to prove himself as a starter, Jones has shined this year. New head coach Brian Daboll is known as a quarterback whisperer, and it seems to have worked on fourth-year pro. Jones has led a surprising Giants team to a 7-4 record with playoff potential.
