Tonight’s hoops slate goes two games deep, but we’re still looking at Thursday NBA player prop picks. We’re just over a week away from the end of the regular season, and there are still a number of playoff races coming down to the wire.
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NBA Player Props, Odds, Trends, & Picks
It’s worth looking at these two matchups from a macro perspective before getting into the individual player prop picks.
The Celtics are coming off of an uncharacteristically poor loss to the Wizards, and one can imagine them having a little more edge tonight. Especially considering they still have a pulse – albeit faint – in their pursuit of the East’s No. 1 seed.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, just played the first leg of a back-to-back set, a taxing 149-136 victory in which they attempted 93 shots and defended 101. Both figures are above their season average. We don’t expect the Bucks to coast, but they have the cushion in the standings to do so to a degree – theoretically.
The Nuggets host the Pelicans in the nightcap, but MVP co-leader Nikola Jokic owns a questionable tag. Our picks are made under the assumption that he sits. Tonight’s game is the first leg of a back-to-back with a trip to Phoenix ticketed for Friday.
Thursday NBA Player Props Picks
Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points
The stage is set for the likes of Tatum and Jaylen Brown to make up for Tuesday’s loss in the nation’s capital. Generally speaking, this is the type of stage players of Tatum’s caliber shine brightest. Annoying cliches aside, he’s averaging 29.5 points over his last 10 and reached at least 29 points in six.
Milwaukee owns one of the best defenses in the game, but it’s reasonable to expect them to be a bit gassed tonight. Jrue Holiday delivered a career-high 51 points while Giannis Antetokounmpo produced a triple-double. If they’re even a half-step sluggish, Tatum will pour in enough points for an Over.
Jaylen Brown Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds
Tatum may dominate the headlines in Boston, but Brown is a boss in his own right. Excuse us for leaning into more intangibles, but this is a “no nonsense” spot for Boston. And Brown is the type of “no nonsense” player and competitor who will embrace the challenge of flushing Tuesday’s loss from the palette.
Brown is playing well, averaging 27.9 points and 6.4 boards over his last 14 contests with eight Overs. While we’re not predicting a scoring explosion, Brown has the ability to eat deep into his number with points alone. Even against the defensively stout Bucks.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Threes
Porter is shooting it well from distance overall, but especially of late – 47.1% on 6.8 attempts over his last 10. Now, the presumed absence of Nikola Jokic theoretically removes access to a lot of easy shots. However, it also affords Porter a larger usage rate.
The Nuggets offense certainly isn’t what it is without Jokic, but they have a quality lead guard in Jamal Murray. It won’t be anything for Porter to attempt double-digit treys, especially considering the added opportunity. It should be enough for Porter to reach three deep conversions, even if his efficiency dips sans Jokic.
Jamal Murray Over 7.5 Assists
Murray’s 27.1% assist rate ranks second behind Jokic among Nuggets regulars. Murray compiled nine and 14 assists with 50.8% and 51.3% assist rates, respectively, in his last two games without Jokic.
Small sample size aside, it’s a demonstration of what Murray can do as the Nuggets’ facilitator. The Nuggets’ injury report is relatively clean aside from Jokic, at least in terms of key players. Jokic’s presumed absence hurts the Nuggets on paper, but don’t underestimate what reserves can do with elevated roles, particularly across a small span of games.
Don’t forget to check the best NBA betting sites for the most updated odds and lines for NBA player props and game wagers. This is particularly important in a case like tonight with Jokic questionable. The odds and lines will shift if he’s in the starting lineup.
