We’re only days away from Super Bowl 58.
The Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the San Francisco 49ers in a highly-anticipated rematch of Super Bowl 54, in which the Chiefs staged a late comeback to win 31-20 and claim Patrick Mahomes’ first Super Bowl title.
Mahomes isn’t having a superstar year by his standards, as he has had to deal with decidedly less offensive skill position talent than ever before in his NFL career, but he has made things work, due to his ever-dependent tight end Travis Kelce and emerging rookie stud wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Let’s get into some of the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets to make ahead of Super Bowl 58.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets For Super Bowl 58
Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
bet365 Sportsbook • 1 Unit
Mahomes going over his rushing yards should not surprise anyone. He is one of the most prolific scramblers of all time, especially on third down. On that down, he has converted a higher percentage (59% as of October 2023) than Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen, per ESPN.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that I’m taking a Mahomes rushing over.
Quarterbacks tend to want the ball more in their hands during the playoffs, and Mahomes is no different, averaging over five yards a carry on 81 career playoff rushing attempts throughout his career. In 17 total playoff games, that’s an average of nearly five carries a game for over 25 yards.
The 49ers have allowed seven different quarterbacks to rush for at least 25 yards this season, and that includes pretty much every single rushing quarterback they faced, from Hurts to Jackson to Kyler Murray.
Mahomes Over 26 Pass Completions (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • 1 Unit
This is a bit of a longshot, given that Mahomes has only hit this in nine of 20 games this season, but there’s a few things that have piqued my interest when it comes to this prop.
First off, there is definitely a decent chance that Kansas City will spend part of this game playing from behind, forcing Mahomes into more obvious passing situations. Mahomes’ aDOT has decreased mightily this season, and that’s been reflected in his passes having a higher chance of being caught with the degree of difficulty lowered.
San Francisco has defended the deep ball well all season long, a sign that Mahomes will have to once again rely on this short-yet-efficient passing game to move the chains. He shouldn’t have an issue there, as both Travis Kelce and Rashee rice are comfortable working in the short-to-intermediate area of the field.
Finally, don’t discount just how good Mahomes can be when throwing. He has evolved his game to where he is happy to take what the defense is willing to give him, and he can move the chains whether chucking deep shots downfield, or dinking and dunking his way to six points each drive.
Photo Credit: Jeff Burke, USA Today Sports
