With under 10 games left in the NBA season, the Knicks are currently the fourth seed but find themselves just 1.5 games behind Milwaukee for the 2-seed. Cleveland’s recent loss to the Hornets opened up a sliver of hope that the Knicks jump up to the three-spot, and secure themselves a first-round matchup vs. the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers. According to BasketballReference.com, the Knicks have a 36.6% chance of finishing as the three-seed. However, there is a major issue. The Knicks have the seventh strongest remaining schedule among Eastern Conference playoff teams, and they are 18-26 on the year against teams above .500. The odds of them holding getting the three seed are not in their favor. So, who is their most likely first-round opponent?
NBA Playoff Matchups: How Do the Knicks Fare Against The Orlando Magic?
Most Likely Opponent
My gut feeling is that Orlando will be the Knicks first round matchup. The Knicks will not get up to three, and with the Cavs having an easier schedule, the Knicks will fall to the four. Orlando is tabbed as the most likely team to end up at five, and they have an easier remaining schedule than the Pacers. So, how do the Knicks fare?
Past Matchups
Not good actually, Orlando took the season series 3-1, though the Knicks won the most recent game. In the 3 games the Knicks lost, they had a 120.2 defensive rating. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero combined to average 55 points in the wins, up from their season average of 43. The Knicks were dominated on both sides of the ball and had a combined net rating of -11.2. The Magic shot 50% from the field and held the Knicks to just 41.9%. As has been the case all year, injuries were a big reason for losing all 3 matchups. The only player on the Knicks who played every matchup was Josh Hart and only five more played three games. On the other side, the Magic had 11 players play at least three games.
The Magic beat the Knicks within the arc. They shot 61.1% within the 3-point line, up from their season average of 55%. They also attempted more shots within that area. The lack of size hampered the Knicks against one of the NBA’s biggest teams. Orlando’s most frequent lineups were a mix of Banchero, Wagner, Wendell Carter, and Goga Bitadze. Each of them is six-foot-10 or taller. The Knicks’ bigs have been injured all year, and only four of the top 10 players with the most minutes against the Magic were six-foot-eight plus. This allowed the Magic to play bully ball against the smaller Knicks, and they played in the paint every time.
This is an area that the Knicks have to improve on come playoff time, especially as we know that the Knicks offense falls apart without Jalen Brunson. Defense is their calling card, and it has to be excellent if they want to make a postseason run.
Playoff Optimism
The Knicks won when they played their last game of the season series against each other, which bodes well for their playoff aspirations. Precious Achiuwa, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jericho Sims combined to play 88 minutes. The Magic frontcourt of Banchero, Wagner, and Carter Jr. shot 35% from the field en route to a 98-74 drubbing by the Knicks. Bringing back Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle gives them frontcourt depth to use against the Magic, and the Knicks also open up their offense when Randle comes back. The Knicks are getting fully healthy at the right time, and the Magic will be the first to see the Knicks at peak strength.
Additionally, here’s the other glass-half-full aspect. The trio of OG Anunoby, Brunson, and Randle have not played a single game together against the Magic. In the 12 games they played together, they went 11-1 and had a net rating of 24.5. They went 5-1 against playoff teams during that stretch. The versatility of OG as a defender combined with the fact that all of them are good to great offensive scorers raises the ceiling of this team. The importance of Randle has been magnified in his absence, and the Knicks need him to hit the ground running to have real playoff aspirations. The Knicks could prove to be a sneaky pick to make the Eastern Conference Finals, but it all starts with taking care of business in the first round of the playoffs; most likely against Orlando Magic.
