The WNBA playoffs are down to one semifinal series. With the Las Vegas Aces dispatching the Dallas Wings in three games on Friday night, the New York Liberty-Connecticut Sun matchup is the only one left. That is before the Finals.
Liberty vs. Sun Semifinals Game 4: Best Bet, 2 Parlays & 4 Player Props
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No. 2 seed New York took control of their semifinal series against the No. 3 Connecticut Sun with a dominant offensive performance in Game 3. The Liberty put up a franchise record 37 first-quarter points and led by 20 points after the period. Still, the Liberty had to stave off several Sun comeback attempts before finishing up with a 92-81 victory to take a 2-1 series lead on Friday.
Breanna Stewart led the way for Liberty in Game 3. Stewart, who had struggled most of the postseason, put up a game-high 25 points and grabbed 11 boards. The 2023 WNBA MVP was 11 of 19 from the field and 1 of 2 from the 3-point line. Betnijah Laney added 20 points on 8 of 15 shooting, and Jonquel Jones posted her fifth straight double-double. All five Liberty starters reached double figures.
Game 4 is on Sunday at 3 p.m. (ET) at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville (CT). The game is slated to be televised by ABC. New York is favored by 5.0 points, with the over/under set at 160.5 points. On the money line, New York is -225, while Connecticut is +185.
Connecticut guard Rebecca Allen is listed as day-to-day with a non-COVID-19 illness.
Prediction
While Allen’s absence on Friday hurt Connecticut, the game’s story was that New York’s offense finally got untracked in the series. Now that the Liberty’s offense has gotten a little on a roll, I don’t expect them to be slowed even if Allen can go.
The Liberty and Stewart have enjoyed playing in Connecticut this year despite the Sun’s defensive acumen. New York is 3-0 at the Mohegan Sun this year and has scored at least 89 points in all three games. Meanwhile, the Liberty only reached 89 points in four games at the Barclays Center.
So, I would like New York to end the series tomorrow. The Liberty has too much firepower for the Sun, who hasn’t yet had Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner clicking together in the series. Plus, the Liberty has been fabulous after just one day of rest.
New York has an 18-4 record, including 1-0 in the playoffs, with a nearly +8.0 scoring margin and just one day off between games. Meanwhile, Connecticut is 11-7 following a day off, including 1-0 in the playoffs, and around a +3.0 scoring margin.
However, my best bet here is over 160.5 points. Connecticut shoots better at the Mohegan Sun than on the road. The Sun also tends to play at a faster pace at home. The average score in the Sun’s games after one day off was 164. The two teams totaled 161 points in Game 2 of the series after one day off.
Moreover, New York is 3-0 this season against Connecticut. The two regular season games saw an average in this situation saw an average of 177 points put on the board.
Best Bet: Over 160.5 Points (-110)
Team Parlay
New York To Win (-255) and Over 160.5 Points (-110)
2-Legged Parlay +176
Player Props
Sabrina Ionescu Under 17.5 Points (-125)
I like this prop bet even more if Allen can play. Ionescu has scored 18 points in just two of her six games against Connecticut this year. She also isn’t as effective as a scorer on the road as she is at home or after one day off rest. Ionescu averages 15.3 points following a day off this season and 15.5 points in that situation for her career.
Breanna Stewart Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
Game 4 will be fast-paced, so there will be plenty of opportunities for rebounds. Stewie has grabbed 11 rebounds in each of the last two games. Stewart has grabbed double-figure boards in four of seven contests against the Sun, including two of the three contests at the Mohegan Sun.
Courtney Vandersloot Under 7.5 Assists
The Liberty hasn’t been moving the ball during the playoffs as they did during the regular season. As a team, the Liberty are averaging five fewer assists than they did during the regular season. Similarly, the Liberty are averaging 18 dimes in this series while registering 23 assists a game against the Sun during the regular season.
Vandersloot is doling out 6.8 helpers during the playoffs. She has recorded eight assists once in the five games and has not posted more than seven this series.
Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 Rebounds (-120)
Ionescu has not rebounded the ball very well in this series. She only has seven in the three games, with three boards in her last outing being her highest total.
Same Game Parlay
Betnijah Laney 12+ Points
Sabrina Ionescu 12+ Points
Tiffany Hayes 12+ Points
Breanna Stewart 8+ Rebounds
Alyssa Thomas 8+ Assists
Jonquel Jones 10+ Rebounds
New York Liberty Over 80.5 Points
7-Legged Parlay – +575
