It’s on to the Finals of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup as the Las Vegas Aces face the New York Liberty at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. These teams met a week ago, and the Liberty won on the road, 87-76. The Liberty have now won eight of the last ten in the series. Las Vegas comes in at 14-5 on the year, while the Liberty are at 12-8. Who will take the Cup Final? Read on to see my Aces vs Liberty prediction.
Aces vs Liberty Commissioner’s Cup Final: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Current Odds
New York -2.5; Over/Under 175.5
Las Vegas Aces Team Notes
Las Vegas enters the Commissioner’s Cup Final after a strong 107-99 road win over Chicago, a game defined by efficient scoring and steady execution late. The Aces shot 52% from the field and 40% from deep, and they controlled the interior with a 32-25 rebounding edge. A’ja Wilson delivered another dominant performance with 30 points and 15 rebounds, while Jackie Young added 28 and Chelsea Gray posted 18 with eight assists. Chennedy Carter returned after missing five games and contributed 11 off the bench. Las Vegas has now won 10 of its last 12 and remains one of the league’s best road teams at 9-2.
The Aces average 90.7 points per game on 48.8% shooting, including 36.8% from deep. Their two‑point accuracy sits at 54.9%, and they generate 22.9 assists per game. Las Vegas also rebounds well at 35.3 boards per contest and shoots 76.6 percent at the line. Defensively, the Aces allow 86.4 points per game and hold opponents to 43.9% shooting. Their perimeter defense has been solid at 35.0% allowed from three, and they force 11.7 turnovers per game. The Aces’ balance on both ends continues to fuel their surge.
Wilson leads the team at 25.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game while shooting 52.4% from the field. Young adds 16.5 points and 6.8 assists, and Gray contributes 12.3 points with 7.4 assists. NaLyssa Smith provides 11.0 points and 6.3 rebounds on 66.1 percent shooting, and Jewell Loyd adds perimeter scoring at 7.5 points per game. Carter’s return strengthens the second unit, giving Las Vegas another downhill threat. The Aces’ core remains one of the most consistent in the league, and their top-end talent is built for championship environments.
For Las Vegas to win, the Aces must control tempo and avoid the slow starts that hurt them in last week’s loss to New York. They also need strong ball movement to create clean looks and keep the Liberty’s defense shifting. Their interior presence must remain steady, especially against a Liberty team that rebounds well. Defensively, Las Vegas must stay disciplined on closeouts and limit New York’s perimeter rhythm. If they maintain composure, protect the ball, and keep pressure on the Liberty’s secondary scorers, the Aces can reclaim momentum in the series.
New York Liberty Team Notes
New York enters at 12-8 after a road loss to Golden State, a game that turned on an 11-0 Valkyries run late in the first half. The Liberty shot just 40% overall and struggled to generate consistent scoring throughout the game. Jonquel Jones led with 21 points and seven rebounds, while Breanna Stewart added 15. Sabrina Ionescu scored nine but faced heavy defensive pressure throughout. New York has now dropped four of its last five, though the team remains 6-4 at home. The Liberty also carry confidence from last week’s win over Las Vegas.
New York averages 87.8 points per game on 46% shooting, including 35.7% from deep. Their two‑point accuracy sits at 54.2%, and they generate 20.7 assists per game. The Liberty rebound well at 34.6 boards per contest and shoot an elite 84.6% at the line. Defensively, they allow 83.5 points per game and hold opponents to 43.8 percent shooting. Their perimeter defense has been solid at 32.1% allowed from deep, and they force 11.0 turnovers per game. New York’s statistical profile remains strong despite recent inconsistency.
Stewart leads the team at 19.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Jones adds 15.2 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 50.3%. Leonie Fiebich provides 9.8 points with 42.6% shooting from deep, and Ionescu contributes 9.5 points and 3.8 assists. Pauline Astier has emerged as a steady contributor at 10.1 points on 54.2% shooting. Marine Johannes adds perimeter scoring at 9.7 points per game. Satou Sabally remains out in concussion protocol, leaving New York without a key rotation piece. The Liberty’s core remains capable, but their depth has been tested.
For New York to win, the Liberty must start fast and avoid the extended droughts that have hurt them recently. They need crisp ball movement to generate rhythm threes and keep Las Vegas from loading the paint. Their defensive rotations must stay sharp, especially against an Aces team that thrives on spacing and interior pressure. New York also needs strong rebounding to limit second‑chance points and create transition opportunities. If they maintain composure, protect the ball, and capitalize on home‑court energy, the Liberty can defend their recent success in the series.
Aces vs Liberty Predictions
Las Vegas +2.5 is the right side because the Aces’ current form is simply stronger, and their confidence continues to build. They have taken ten of their last twelve and remain one of the league’s most reliable road teams. New York enters this championship game on a cold stretch, and momentum matters in a matchup with this level of intensity. The earlier loss adds fuel for Las Vegas, who rarely miss opportunities to respond. With steadier rhythm and better recent consistency, the Aces are positioned to deliver a sharp effort.
The Over fits the projected flow because both offenses should find cleaner looks than they did in recent outings. Las Vegas has averaged 91.8 points per game on the road, and its pace often forces opponents into quicker possessions. New York’s scoring should rebound at home, especially in a championship environment where rotations tighten and primary scorers play heavier minutes. Las Vegas’ spacing typically creates high‑value shots, and New York’s transition game can push tempo. With both teams capable of extended scoring bursts, the total leans upward.
This matchup sets up as a competitive, offense‑driven final where execution and pace dictate the outcome. Las Vegas enters with the sharper rhythm, while New York must shake off recent inconsistency. The Aces’ road production suggests they can sustain pressure throughout, and their ability to score in multiple ways keeps the Over in play. New York’s home floor should help their offense stabilize, adding balance to the scoring profile. Together, the side and total complement each other well: Aces +2.5 and the Over form a logical pairing for this championship clash.
Final Predictions: Las Vegas +2.5 & Over 175.5
© Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
