The Oklahoma City Thunder remain heavy favorites to repeat as NBA champions. It is a billing that they have earned. Yet, people also have them pegged as the Association’s next dynasty. While there is merit to this sentiment, it overlooks a brutal reality of the NBA: It’s probably not going to happen.
Make no mistake, the conviction in the Thunder isn’t going anywhere. Even as they battle checkered availability from Jalen Williams, who is widely considered their second-best player, all mainstream oddsmakers continue to list them as the current favorite. For many, the idea of even betting on the NBA has become an exercise in straining to picture someone, anyone, ready to seize the long-term mantle from Oklahoma City, something to which OnlineSportsBetting.net alludes when discussing overarching markets in its Lucky Rebel Review.
At the same time, the popularity of this sentiment doesn’t quite align with reality. At least, not the reality the NBA has lived over the past decade or so. And the idea that the Thunder are built to transcend everything we already know may come crashing down as early as this summer.
The Thunder May Be Speeding Toward Tough Decisions
A few years ago, the NBA instituted an “Apron” system for their salary. If you cross into the Second Apron specifically, you are subject to incredibly high luxury-tax payments and serious roster-building restrictions. The latter includes having your draft pick seven years out into the frozen, losing access to spending tools in free agency, and being unable to aggregate salaries in trades.
As a result, most teams have come to view the Second Apron as an artificial hard cap. They won’t dare enter it. And if they do, it won’t be for more than a season or two.
The Thunder must decide whether they are willing to enter it at all this sumer. They are currently projected to be nearly $30 million above the Second Apron threshold.
Now, Oklahoma City does have avenues it can travel to get out of the tax. But it will come at a cost. For starters, at least one of Isaiah Hartenstein or Lu Dort will need to go. The Thunder have team options totaling $46.7 million on both of them.
Still, jettisoning them isn’t akin to shedding dead money. They both ranked in the top seven of total minutes played this season. For his part, Dort has been saddled with guarding the other team’s best player every night for the better part of a decade.
Oklahoma has other options at its disposal. But ditching other money only solves the problem for a year, before the Thunder run into the same problem all over again. And while they could simply pay into the Second Apron, small-market squads are expected to avoid it like the plague even if they’re title contenders.
Oklahoma City Cannot Escape the Effects of Time
A few years ago, the NBA instituted an “Apron” system for their salary. If you cross into the Second Apron specifically, you are subject to incredibly high luxury-tax payments and serious roster-building restrictions. The latter includes having your draft pick seven years out into the frozen, losing access to spending tools in free agency, and being unable to aggregate salaries in trades.
As a result, most teams have come to view the Second Apron as an artificial hard cap. They won’t dare enter it. And if they do, it won’t be for more than a season or two.
The Thunder must decide whether they are willing to enter it at all this sumer. They are currently projected to be nearly $30 million above the Second Apron threshold.
Now, Oklahoma City does have avenues it can travel to get out of the tax. But it will come at a cost. For starters, at least one of Isaiah Hartenstein or Lu Dort will need to go. The Thunder have team options totaling $46.7 million on both of them.
Still, jettisoning them isn’t akin to shedding dead money. They both ranked in the top seven of total minutes played this season. For his part, Dort has been saddled with guarding the other team’s best player every night for the better part of a decade.
Oklahoma has other options at its disposal. But ditching other money only solves the problem for a year, before the Thunder run into the same problem all over again. And while they could simply pay into the Second Apron, small-market squads are expected to avoid it like the plague even if they’re title contenders.
Oklahoma City Cannot Escape the Effects of Time
Optimists will argue that the Thunder have the depth, up-and-comers and inbound draft picks necessary to navigate its labyrinth of impending challenges. They are not necessarily wrong. Oklahoma City is better built to juggle multiple timelines and keep the pipeline flowing with cost-controlled talent better than perhaps any team in NBA history.
But forging and maintaining a dynasty isn’t just about affording it. The Thunder also have to avoid the pitfalls that just seem to pop up even when things are going well.
Teardowns are always around the corner. Look at the Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant-era Los Angeles Lakers. Or the Big Three-era Miami Heat. Or the Kevin Durant-James Harden-Kyrie Irving-era Brooklyn Nets. Heck, even look at the actually dynastic Golden State Warriors. Windows always seem to shut sooner than you’d expect, and oftentimes without warning.
Injuries can rear their ugly head, like they did with that Heat team. Player relationships could fall apart behind the scenes, as they did with that Nets squad and the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers. The Warriors looked poised to run the tables with Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson for the better part of a decade. Between injuries to KD and Klay and the vacillating whims of KD himself, it couldn’t last.
Pinpointing a similar issue for the Thunder isn’t particularly difficult. J-Dub or Chet Holmgren might want to run their own team one day, rather than play second or third fiddle to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They could suffer a catastrophic injury. The front office could decide to sell off key players as they get more expensive, including J-Dub or Chet, in favor of cheaper ones they believe buy them flexibility without torpedoing their place in the pecking order.
Oh, and this says nothing of running into a viable foil. In fact, the Thunder may have already collided into one. The Victor Wembanyama-led San Antonio Spurs have a unique meld of extraterrestrial defense and attacking ball-handlers that can give Oklahoma City’s defense fits.
To be sure, we are not saying beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Thunder will not create their own dynasty. They certainly seem poised to win at least two consecutive championships.
But back-to-back titles don’t qualify as dynasties. Those are built with three consecutive banners, or over an extended period of time—a decade or 15 years.
Traveling either path was always difficult. It is even harder now. There isn’t just a chance the Thunder fail in their dynastic quest. Recent history suggests that should be the expectation.
