CHICAGO — Despite the breakneck speed at which data points, technology, and sports science are taking over NBA basketball, it’s still luck that determines the most important off-court activity of the basketball calendar. Ping-pong ball luck to be exact. The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday, May 10 at the McCormick Place Convention Center in Chicago, Illinois. It will be televised on ABC at 3 p.m. ET (2 p.m. CT). The event made me wonder: which teams are the unluckiest in NBA draft lottery history and deserve a shot at a franchise-altering talent?
2026 NBA Draft Lottery Karma Rankings: The Teams Most Deserving Of Some Lottery Luck
For all the tanking discourse, front offices still end up staring at bouncing ping-pong balls like medieval villagers reading tea leaves. One bounce and a franchise gets Tim Duncan. Another bounce and you’re explaining to your fanbase why the seventh pick is ‘actually a really versatile connector piece.’ The NBA Draft Lottery has always had a little casino energy to it. Everyone walks in optimistic, half the room leaves devastated and one team suddenly starts acting like destiny personally called them on the phone.
5. Dallas Mavericks: Finally Lucky… After Four Decades Of Chaos
The Dallas Mavericks being on this list might feel strange considering they literally jumped from 10th to No. 1 last season to select Duke phenom Cooper Flagg. Cuban probably still has the lottery envelopes framed somewhere in a vault next to Dirk Nowitzki highlights. But that miraculous jump was actually the first time in franchise history Dallas had ever moved up in the draft lottery. Forty years. That’s an absurd drought for a franchise that has had plenty of mediocre seasons sprinkled between eras of contention.
Before Flagg, the Mavericks’ lottery history mostly consisted of near-misses and awkward positioning. They were constantly too competent to bottom out entirely and too flawed to seriously contend. That’s basketball purgatory. Not bad enough for elite odds, not good enough for June basketball. The franchise’s most important player ever, Nowitzki, wasn’t even drafted directly by Dallas. He came via trade with Milwaukee after being selected ninth in 1998. Imagine telling Mavericks fans their greatest draft success technically started in Wisconsin.
Dallas enters the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery with a 6.7% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 29.8% chance at a top-four selection.
