On Tuesday evening, the NCAA Tournament will get underway with a First Four matchup between the NC State Wolfpack and the Texas Longhorns. The Wolfpack went 120-13 overall this year, while going 10-8 within the tough ACC. They fell to Virginia by a score of 81-71 in the ACC Tournament. The Longhorns were able to get into this First Four matchup by going 18-14 overall, including 9-9 within the SEC. These teams met earlier in the year at Texas and the Longhorns won that game 102-97. Can the Wolfpack get some revenge for that loss? Keep reading to see my NC State vs Texas prediction.
NC State Wolfpack vs Texas Longhorns: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: Texas PK; Over/Under 159
NC State Wolfpack
NC State enters the First Four at 20-13 after an up‑and‑down ACC season, but their offensive firepower gives them a real chance to advance. The Wolfpack average 83.7 points per game and shoot 46.8%, ranking among the nation’s better scoring teams. Paul McNeil, Quadir Copeland, and Ven‑Allen Lubin each average 13.9 points, giving NC State a balanced trio capable of scoring at all three levels. Darrion Williams adds 13.8 points and strong rebounding. NC State also hits 38.8% from three, which makes them dangerous when their shooters get clean looks. Their pace and spacing can stress Texas’ defense, especially in transition. NC State must push tempo, attack early, and avoid long half‑court possessions.
Defensively, NC State allows 76.5 points and gives up 45.0% shooting, which puts pressure on their offense to stay efficient. They struggle on the defensive glass, allowing 35.5 rebounds, and Texas is strong on the boards. NC State does force 8.1 steals, and Copeland’s length helps disrupt passing lanes. Their biggest challenge will be containing Texas’ interior scoring and preventing second‑chance points. NC State must also defend the three better, as opponents hit 35.6% from deep. If they can limit Texas’ paint touches and force jumpers, they can keep the game in their preferred pace.
For NC State to win, they must lean on their scoring depth and perimeter efficiency. McNeil must hit early shots to stretch the defense. Copeland must control tempo and create clean looks. Lubin must win his matchup inside and rebound effectively. NC State also needs to protect the ball and avoid empty possessions. Their best path is a fast, high‑possession game where their shooters get volume and their athleticism shines. If they rebound well and maintain offensive rhythm, they can put real pressure on Texas.
Texas Longhorns
Texas enters the First Four at 18-14 after a competitive SEC season, and their offensive balance gives them a strong foundation. The Longhorns average 83.8 points and shoot 48.6%, ranking among the nation’s most efficient scoring teams. Dailyn Swain leads the team with 17.8 points and 7.6 rebounds, giving Texas a versatile forward who can score inside and out. Matas Vokietaitis adds 15.5 points and strong interior finishing at 7 feet. Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope combine for nearly 27 points and provide reliable perimeter scoring. Texas also gets to the line at a high rate, averaging 19.8 made free throws, which boosts their consistency. Their size and physicality can challenge NC State’s defense.
Defensively, Texas allows 76.8 points and holds opponents to 44.9% shooting. They defend the three well, allowing only 36.0%, and their length helps contest perimeter shots. Texas rebounds extremely well with 37.7 boards, ranking among the nation’s better units. Their interior defense is solid, allowing 49.4% on twos, and Vokietaitis provides size at the rim. Texas must stay disciplined against NC State’s shooters and avoid giving up transition points. Their biggest challenge will be containing NC State’s spacing and preventing open threes.
For Texas to win, they must control the paint and dictate tempo. Swain must attack mismatches and create scoring pressure. Vokietaitis must establish himself early inside. Mark and Pope must hit perimeter shots to keep NC State honest. Texas also needs to dominate the glass and limit NC State’s second‑chance scoring. Their best path is a physical, controlled game where they use size and efficiency to wear down the Wolfpack. If Texas defends the arc, wins the rebounding battle, and maintains offensive balance, they can advance to the Round of 64.
Predictions
Texas enters this First Four matchup with a slight edge despite their recent 1-5 slide, largely because their overall profile remains stronger. According to KenPom, Texas has faced the tougher Strength of Schedule, and that matters in a high‑pressure setting. Swain, Vokietaitis, Mark, and Pope give Texas balanced scoring and multiple shot‑creators.
NC State has also gone 1-5 in their last six and 2-7 in their last nine, which raises concerns about consistency. Texas shoots 48.6% from the field and gets to the line at a high rate, which stabilizes their offense. Their size and physicality can also challenge NC State’s interior defense. With both teams struggling but Texas showing stronger metrics and tougher competition, the PK number sits in a favorable range.
The total leans high because both teams play fast and both defenses have struggled. NC State averages 83.7 points and shoots 38.8% from three, while Texas averages 83.8 points and attacks the paint with efficiency. Their first meeting produced 199 points without overtime, showing how explosive this matchup can become. NC State allows 76.5 points, and Texas allows 76.8, which reflects their defensive issues. Both teams push tempo, rely on early offense, and generate high‑value shots in transition. Texas also gets to the line nearly 20 times per game, which adds steady scoring. With two fast offenses and two vulnerable defenses, the Over 159 fits the expected pace.
The most likely script features Texas using their size, efficiency, and tougher schedule background to create separation late. Swain can attack mismatches, Vokietaitis can control the paint, and Mark and Pope can stretch NC State’s defense. NC State will score because their offense is too explosive to disappear, but their defensive lapses remain a concern. Texas’ ability to get downhill, draw fouls, and rebound should help them win key possessions. Combined with both teams’ pace and scoring talent, this matchup projects another high‑possession shootout. Texas at PK and the Over 159 align with the most probable flow of the game.
Final Predictions: Texas PK & Over 159
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