There are probably more people talking about Utah Jazz forward Ace Bailey than Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg right now.
After drafting the southern shot-maker with the fifth overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, there were questions abound about what would follow. He hadn’t worked out for the Jazz. He hadn’t shown any interest in playing for the Jazz. On top of that, his agent (Omar Cooper) was playing hard ball, trying to steer him to a team with a more obvious pathway to stardom.
Yet, for all the media- and fan-based drama, it turns out that it was all for naught. When the dust finally settled, it was on ESPN analyst Jonathan Givony’s headline about him reporting to the Jazz on Saturday.
Predicting Ace Bailey’s Rookie Stats, Role With Jazz
Now that Bailey’s immediate future has more clarity, it’s time to assess what could happen a few months from now. When the season tips off in mid-October, he’ll have experienced Summer League, training camp and preseason. However, what’s most important is how he performs in the regular season.
With that in mind, the 18-year-old has set some pretty high expectations for himself.
“I definitely want to win Rookie of the Year,” he said after being drafted, per The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov. “Definitely want to be an All-Star my rookie year.”
Role
No matter where people stand on where Bailey really wanted to go on draft night, there’s a through line that suggests his priority was playing time. He (or his representation) sought out a promise from organizations prior to working out for them, trying to find the team that promised him a starting spot. With that in mind, the New Orleans Pelicans are the only team that he worked out for, per NBA draft consultant Rafael Barlowe. The Washington Wizards were rumored to be his top destination.
It may not be so easy for Bailey.
Lauri Markkanen has already locked up one forward slot. Taylor Hendricks entered last season as a starter, with Jazz head coach Will Hardy tasking him to guard the top forwards. Cody Williams may not have inspired much faith after his rookie season but he can’t be counted out. Brice Sensabaugh was one of the team’s most consistent scorers and 3-point threats last season. Not to be forgotten are John Collins and Kyle Filipowski, who can play both center and power forward.
Cream typically rises to the top though. When factoring in his shot-blocking ability, his defensive presence might only be matched by Hendricks. With Bailey’s ability to score on and off-ball, he’s arguably more impactful in that area than each of the aforementioned players. Again, there’s truly no guarantee. Even still, he really could be named a starter sooner rather than later.
Stats
For comparison’s sake, Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero played 72 games in his rookie season, starting in all of them. Banchero is bigger than Bailey at 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds. However, their overall athleticism and their style of play have similarities. He may be even closer to Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, both physically and as a player. The 6-foot-10 and 230-pound forward played 80 games in his rookie season, starting in all of them.
Notably, Banchero played 33.8 minutes per game as a rookie and Tatum played 30.5 minutes per game.
To be conservative, which has been Hardy’s approach, say Bailey starts by Game 10 after initially coming off the bench to acclimate to the level of competition without being thrown into the fire. Let’s also say that he misses 10 games due to one of the many minor injuries that can often occur. That would put Bailey at around 70 games with 60 or so starts. He may not play 30+ minutes per game due to their depth. Ideally though, he’ll be playing at least 25 minutes per game.
If starting, playing 25+ minutes per game and in a row that underscores his natural abilities, he should certainly average in the double-figures. To that point, Banchero averaged 20.0 points on 15.6 field goal and 7.4 free-throw attempts per game. Tatum averaged 13.9 points on 10.4 field goal and 3.2 free-throw attempts per game.
With a 24.3 percent free-throw rate in college that highlights his tendency to pull-up rather than drive all the way to the rim, his numbers will likely look more like Tatum’s.
Outlook
All in all, Bailey doesn’t find himself in a perfect situation but one that he can make the best of. If he’s as good as he and many people believe he is, there shouldn’t be much of anything standing in his way. As he gets stronger physically, which often tends to happen naturally but will be aided by team trainers and nutritionists, he could actually become pretty dominant.
Frankly, he has the potential to be better than even Markkanen one day.
The main skill Bailey could stand to improve at this point of his career is his playmaking, but not for the reason many believe. Despite his low assist numbers, Bailey is a willing passer. Despite his aggressive scoring mentality, he’ll make quick and easy passes to keep the ball moving.
However, he needs to improve his processing speed and precision. Because of the attention he can generate with his size and skill, he should be thinking ahead about finding teammates. When he does see a crease, it really only matters if he can deliver the ball accurately.
As he focuses on those areas and builds up on his strengths, even his most staunch critics might send in their apology forms.
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