After 64 games in the NCAA Tournament, only four remain. Auburn survived slow starts in multiple games, including in the Round of 64 against Alabama State, to advance in the South. Duke dominated the competition in the East, winning their games by an average margin of 23.5 points. Houston survived challenging games against powerhouses Gonzaga and Purdue before dominating Tennessee in the Elite Eight to win the Midwest. Florida rocked incredible comebacks against two-time defending champion UConn and in the Elite Eight against Texas Tech to survive the West. Each one seed survived, but what does each 2025 Final Four team need to do to win the national championship?
How Each 2025 Final Four Team Could Win the Championship
Auburn – Remain Healthy, Rely on Experience
Johni Broome‘s elbow injury will loom large over this Final Four. He came out and said there will be no limitations, but time will tell whether that is true. Expect Auburn’s first possessions to dictate exactly how healthy he is: a post-up on the first possession will show Florida that he is ready to play. Avoiding his paint touches early will show caution. Either way, Broome’s health could easily decide this game. Florida has great rebounding, but Auburn has found ways to win games with their incredible experience. Their whole starting lineup is full of graduates and seniors. They’ve seen plenty of games. If this game is close down the stretch, Florida has great closers. However, Auburn has found ways to win those games all season. Don’t expect that to change now.
Florida – Dominate the Boards, Hit Clutch Shots
Walter Clayton Jr. can take over any game in the clutch. It doesn’t matter where he is, he will be hitting a huge shot when the team needs it. Florida will likely need these clutch shots to outlast Auburn and their experience. However, Florida could avoid a lot of that by dominating the rebounding margins. The 2025 Final Four will be defined by fundamentals. Florida is one of the best rebound teams in the country, ranking third in rebounds per game and ninth in rebound margin. They have elite size in their frontcourt at all times. Auburn could have health issues down low, but Florida could dominate the rebounding margin either way. Florida may not win if they rebound more, but they will drastically improve their chances if they can win that margin by 10 or more. A margin much higher would likely lock them into the championship.
Duke – Keep Playing Defense and Making Threes
Duke has the best offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They also have the fifth-best defense. The Blue Devils have been playing better than any team in the country recently, and the numbers show it. Alabama scored 113 points against BYU but only scored 65 against the Blue Devils. They can be completely suffocating to even the best offenses. Add their recent elite three-point shooting, and they will be the favorites this weekend. Houston is a great team with a great defense, but if Duke plays their best, the Cougars will have a hard time winning. Cooper Flagg is likely to receive the Wooden Award, and their elite supporting cast has lived up to the moment. If you need any more reason to believe the Blue Devils are playing the best basketball in the country, the Blue Devils have the highest KenPom net rating since 2002. The next closest? Kentucky’s 38-1 team from 2015. Good company.
Houston – Make Tough Shots, Play the Best Defensive Game This Season
Houston ranks 2nd in KenPom because of their elite defense. They’ll need the defense to step up in every way possible in the Final Four to take down the Blue Devils. Duke’s offense is better than any one they’ve faced all season, but their defense receives most of the attention. Houston can sometimes come off as offensively challenged. Duke will make Houston hit tough shots. If Houston can’t hit many tough shots, they likely won’t win. If their defense doesn’t bring their best game, they likely won’t win. Houston has been as hot as almost anyone, but not Duke. The Cougars will need to play their best game of the season on Saturday to win. Never count out Kelvin Sampson and his incredible team, but they will need to bring everything.
The Last Word on the 2025 Final Four
While this NCAA Tournament will go down as one of the chalkiest renditions, these Final Four matchups could be the best ever. The gap between these four teams and the rest of the field was apparent all season. Each team could win. However, they have to play well. If they fail to bring their best, their opponent will be too good to walk out with a win. These four teams all rank in the top seven all-time for KenPom net rating. Buckle up for some of the best basketball games in the 21st century.
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