While “Selection Sunday” is getting closer by the day, there is still much to be decided on both the men’s and women’s sides. The biggest difference between the men’s and women’s 2025 NCAA tournament is that the top ladies’ teams have already concluded their regular season. Conversely, none of the Power-5 conferences on the men’s side have started their conference tournaments.
Women’s NCAA Tournament: Who Will Get The 4 No. 1 Seeds and Top Seed Overall, Analyzing Case For All Contenders
Sunday saw several women’s basketball teams punch their NCAA tournament tickets. The No. 11-ranked Duke Blue Devils upended the seventh-ranked NC State Wolfpack 77-62 in the ACC final. A little later Sunday afternoon, the fifth-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks raced past No. 1 Texas Longhorns 64-55 in the SEC final, and No. 7 TCU defeated No. 17 Baylor 64-59 in the Big 12 title game.
Then, Sunday night, fourth-ranked UCLA upended No. 2 USC 72-67 to capture the Big Ten tourney title. In the last Power-5 conference championship game, the No. 3 UConn Huskies easily handled No. 22 Xavier 70-50 for another Big East title.
With all the top conferences won by top teams, that begs one question heading into “Selection Sunday.” Six teams have three or fewer losses, so who will be selected as the No. 1 seeds in the women’s 2025 NCAA tournament? Also, who will earn the top No. 1 seed overall?
Tennessee Tech (OVC), UNC Greensboro (SoCon), George Mason (A10), South Dakota State (Summit), High Point (Big South), and Arkansas State (Sun Belt) have also secured spots in the NCAA tournament. Green Bay/Fort Wayne (Horizon) and Portland/Oregon State (WCC) earned berths today.
6 Women’s 2025 NCAA Tournament No.1 Seed Contenders
The women’s 2025 NCAA tournament projects to be inspiring and perhaps more unpredictable than usual. There are several talented teams, with 10 teams able to win the national title. Six teams have clearly put them into consideration not only for a No. 1 seed but also for the top seed overall.
There isn’t much difference between most of the teams. UConn Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks, USC Trojans, UCLA Bruins, TCU Horned Frogs, and Texas Longhorns are contending for a No. 1 seed.
UConn Huskies
Record: 31-3
Road/Neutral Record: 18-2
NET Rankings: 1
Versus Quality Opponent Record/Quad I wins: 12-3, 6 QI victories
UConn has been dominant this year. The Huskies’ 31 victories, which ties Texas and TCU for most in the nation this season, marks the fourth straight year the program has reached 30 victories. Since returning to the conference, the Huskies have won the Big East regular and conference tourney crowns all five seasons. It is also the second straight season and third in the past five that they have gone undefeated against conference opponents.
UConn has nine big wins, the biggest of which was an 87-58 shellacking of the defending national champions, the South Carolina Gamecocks (87-58), in the first few weeks of February. All 31 of the Huskies’ victories were by double-digits, and their +28.4 scoring margin topped the nation.
UConn’s three losses were by a total of 17 points. The Huskies’ biggest loss was by 11 points to Notre Dame, but they didn’t have Azzi Fudd available. They also suffered setbacks to Tennessee (80-76) and USC (72-70).
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record: 30-3
Road/Neutral Record: 16-2
Versus Quality Opponents/ Quad I victories: 20-3, 16 QI
NET Rankings: 2
South Carolina heads into the NCAA tournament looking to make its fifth straight Final Four appearance and claim its third title. While the three losses are South Carolina’s most since 2021-22, the Gamecocks did capture their fifth straight conference. The Gamecocks also defeated Texas 64-45 in the SEC title contest.
South Carolina has 13 big wins against all sorts of competition and a +22.7 scoring margin. USC has victories over ACC regular-season champion NC State (71-57), ACC tournament champ Duke (81-70), Big 12 regular and tournament champ TCU (82-52), Texas (two wins), and Oklahoma (two).
As impressive as South Carolina’s wins are, the Gamecocks were punched in the gut by Connecticut (87-58) and UCLA (77-62). They also fell to Texas (66-62) once.
USC Trojans
Record: 28-3
Road/ Neutral Record: 14-2
Versus Quality Opponents/ Quad I Wins 16-3, 13 Quad I wins
NET Ranking: 6
USC’s 28 victories are the Trojans third most all-time. The Trojans claimed the Big Ten title in their first season in the conference, and it was their first regular season title since 1994. However, USC fell to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament final 72-67.
For the third straight season, USC has won 20-plus games. USC has eight big victories, defeating UConn (72-70) and UCLA twice—each win over the Bruins was by double-digits. The Trojans also hammered Ohio State by 21 and picked a five-point win at Maryland.
USC has a 21.7-point scoring margin. In addition to the Big Ten championship loss to UCLA, USC fell to Notre Dame (74-61) and to Iowa (76-69).
UCLA Bruins
Record: 30-2
Road/ Neutral Record: 18-1
Versus Quality Opponents/ Quad I Wins 18-2, 14 Quad I wins
NET Ranking: 4
While UCLA basketball is discussed with reverence on the men’s side, the Bruins women have a long way to go. The Bruins, who have made the Sweet 16 in the last two years, increased their win total from last year by three. The 30 wins are a program record.
UCLA’s record away from Pauley Pavilion is impressive at 18-1. The Bruins also have seven big wins, the two biggest being over South Carolina and USC. They outscored their opponents by 21.9 points. Their two setbacks to USC were by a total of 24 points.
Texas Longhorns
Record: 31-3
Road/ Neutral Record: 16-3
Versus Quality Opponents/ Quad I Wins: 18-3, 14 QI victories
NET Ranking: 3
Texas has been one of the most consistent women’s programs outside of Notre Dame, UConn, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Longhorns posted their 10th 30-win campaign since 1981-82.
In their first year in the conference, the Longhorns shared the SEC regular-season title with South Carolina as the teams split their matchups. The Trojans blew them out in the SEC title game, but their only other loss was to Notre Dame in overtime.
Texas has 12 big victories with their top wins, in addition to beating South Carolina, including over Maryland, Oklahoma (two), and LSU (two). The Longhorns have outscored their opponents by an average of 24 points, as 21 of their victories are by double-digits.
TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 31-3
Road/ Neutral Record: 12-3
Versus Quality Opponents/ Quad I Wins: 13-3, 8 QI victories
NET Ranking: 8
TCU had a historic season, shattering the program’s previous win total of 25 set in 2003-04. The Horned Frogs also set a school record for Big 12 conference victories, going 16-2 to win their first conference regular season crown. They also won the Big 12 tournament for the first time, thus becoming the first Big 12 program to win both the regular and conference titles since Baylor in 2018-19.
TCU has had seven big wins, including those at Notre Dame and NC State. The Horned Frogs, who outscored their opponents by 20.3 points, also have victories over Baylor and West Virginia. They did get hammered by South Carolina, though their setbacks to Kansas State and Oklahoma State were by a combined 10 points.
Who Receives The Women’s 2025 NCAA Tournament No. 1 Seeds and Top Overall
There are five really strong contenders for the four No. 1 seeds. Similarly, there are two squads in contention for the overall No. 1 seed. UConn, South Carolina, USC, and UCLA all deserve top seeds, but I’m a little conflicted about who should get the No. 1 seed.
It basically boils down to UCLA or UConn. The Huskies have been dominant throughout the season, with their biggest loss coming against a Notre Dame squad that will likely be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and that was when they were not at full strength. The Huskies beat down an elite South Carolina squad and fell to a solid Tennessee team, projected to be a five-seed, by four.
UCLA suffered two conference losses, both to USC. However, the Trojans defeated Nebraska by 11 and then whitewashed Ohio State in the Big Ten semis before finally avenging USC in the title game.
So, in the end, I believe UCLA will get the No. 1 overall seed. UConn will be slated second, followed by South Carolina and USC. Therefore, Texas and TCU fall to the second line of the bracket, though both programs will play host in the first two rounds. Notre Dame and LSU will get the final two No. 2 seeds.
Photo Credit: © David Butler II, Imagn Images
