Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum has made first-team All-NBA in three consecutive seasons. However, Tatum has never finished within the top three of MVP voting. It’s unclear who will win the MVP award, but, it’s a two-man race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. Nevertheless, Tatum has a solid case to finish third in MVP voting. NBA.com recently released its latest MVP ladder and Tatum ranked third, an improvement from his previous ranking of fourth. Let’s dive into Tatum’s MVP candidacy and his chances to finish within the top three.
https://t.co/wWGNmWoaNH’s updated MVP Ladder:
1. Nikola Jokic
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
5. LeBron James
6. Anthony Edwards
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Karl-Anthony Towns
9. Cade Cunningham
10. Jaren Jackson Jr.— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 28, 2025
Evaluating Jayson Tatum’s MVP Candidacy
As mentioned earlier, Shai and Jokic are guaranteed to finish within the top two in MVP voting it’s just unclear who will win the award. After that, Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo are battling for third place, with fifth place being wide open. Both players have solid cases but for different reasons.
Tatum’s Case for Third Place
Tatum has been the main catalyst of the Celtics’ success they have a 42-18 record, which is good for the second seed in the East. Notably, the Celtics are eight games ahead of the five-seed Milwaukee Bucks. Another clear advantage Tatum has over Giannis is games played, Tatum has played 57 games while Giannis has played 46. If Giannis misses six more games, he will be ineligible for awards. Tatum is arguably having a career season, posting averages of 27 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 45.3/35.5/80.1 shooting splits. He has notably taken on more playmaking responsibilities, averaging a career-high in assists and assist percentage (26.3). Furthermore, Tatum has been incredibly versatile defensively, guarding every position. Overall, Tatum has been the engine of Boston’s success.
The Celtics’ incredible core typically holds Tatum back in MVP conversations however, he has never been more important to the Celtics, especially as a playmaker. With Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday missing time throughout the season Tatum has stepped up massively. Tatum recently had one of his best games of the season, notching 46 points, 16 rebounds, and nine assists. While the Celtics fell short against the Cleveland Cavaliers, this game highlights Tatum’s impact and value.
Tatum posted an impressive 4.0 value over replacement (VORP) and 7.8 win shares. These numbers are extremely similar to Giannis’ 4.0 VORP and 6.9 win shares. The Celtics are better when Tatum has more responsibility in games when he has a usage rate of 33 or higher, the Celtics are 16-3, and they are 10-1 when he has a usage rate of 35 or higher. These stats underscore Tatum’s importance to the Celtics and how his play translates to winning basketball. Ultimately, Tatum is one of the most well-rounded and impactful stars, one of the NBA’s best teams, which gives him a solid case in the MVP race. Recently, Tatum spoke about how he feels underappreciated.
Jayson Tatum on if he feels appreciated:
“Honestly, no… If you took the name and the face away from all my accomplishments and you’re just like, ‘This is what this Player A accomplished at 26,’ people would talk about me a lot differently.”
(via @washingtonpost) pic.twitter.com/HNc8Ir8KJ2
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) February 25, 2025
Tatum is absolutely right with this assertion his accomplishments at age 26 are truly historic. Finishing top three in MVP voting would only boost Tatum’s incredible resume. The media may reward Tatum due to his exceptional play and his openness about being constantly disrespected.
Giannis’ Case for Third Place
Giannis’ case centers around his immense value to the Bucks and two-way excellence. The Bucks have a 33-25 record, good for fifth in the East. However, they would be a lottery team without Giannis. With stellar averages of 30.9 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 60.6 shooting from the field. Giannis is set to average 30 points on 60 percent shooting from the field for the second straight year; he is the only player to achieve this feat. This historic dominance paired with Giannis being one of the best defenders in the league gives him a clear case to finish top three in MVP voting.
Giannis’ importance to his team is also crucial to his case. Notably, Giannis has an absurd +8.2 net difference compared to Tatum’s respectable +3.8 net difference. Unlike Boston, the Bucks don’t have consistent scoring threats outside of Giannis and Damian Lillard. The defense around Giannis is even more concerning. However, the Bucks remain a top-10 defense in large part due to Giannis’ greatness. There are few players league-wide more important to their team than Giannis, in essence, that’s what the MVP award is about. Giannis is a clear top-three player in the league regardless of his team’s success he is having a great season and should be respected in MVP talks.
Who Else Could Be in the MVP Mix
While one of Tatum or Giannis will likely finish third, it’s worth wondering if anyone else could steal the show and rise in MVP talks as the season winds down, especially if Giannis doesn’t meet the games played requirement. NBA.com’s MVP ladder has LeBron James, Anthony Edwards, and Donovan Mitchell ranked five through seven. The Lakers are surging, and LeBron is playing at an extremely high level. However, in my eyes, Mitchell has the best chance to earn a top-five MVP spot. The Cavs have a league-best 49-10, and Mitchell is the team’s best player.
Voters typically value winning, and Mitchell should get a top-five nod as a result. This season, Mitchell is averaging 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 45.5/39.5/82.2 shooting splits. In the last 15 games, Mitchell is averaging 27.1 points on 49.3 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from three. Mitchell’s recent 41-point outburst in a win over the Celtics was an MVP-level performance. If Mitchell’s incredible play and the Cavs’ dominance continue, he will likely slide into the top five of MVP voting. Mitchell isn’t likely to surpass Tatum or Giannis, but he has the best chance out of any player within this range.
The Last Word
Currently, Tatum and Giannis are interchangeable for third place in the MVP race. It comes to what you value in this race: team success or extreme individual importance to a team. Ultimately, Tatum has a better chance of finishing third especially considering games played. Nevertheless, it will be fascinating to watch how the rest of this MVP race plays out and if Tatum can secure a top-three spot for the first time in his career.
Photo credit: © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
