The Indiana Pacers surprised many last season with a strong playoff run, notching 47 wins and reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. However, this season’s sluggish 2-3 start has raised questions, especially given their dramatic drop in offensive efficiency. In 2023-24, they thrived under a fast-paced, high-scoring style reminiscent of Mike D’Antoni’s seven-second or less offense. This year, they rank 22nd in offensive rating, averaging just 109.3 compared to last season’s 120.5. Despite the Pacers’ depth, led by a productive bench, the root issue seems to lie with their stars: Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam.
NBA Business: Pacers Set To Solve Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam Problem
The Shift in Offensive Dynamics
Many would expect the Pacers’ drop in scoring to be due to defensive adjustments from opponents. But Indiana’s bench remains productive, with a strong 63.4 offensive rating, fourth in the NBA. Last season, their bench led the league with a 67.4 offensive rating. The early-season absence of Myles Turner, who enables the team’s five-out style, may partly explain the struggles. However, point guard T.J. McConnell has pointed to depth as the team’s core strength, which means they must adapt even without Turner.
TJ McConnell:
“Our depth on this team is a superpower of ours.”#Pacers @WTHRcom pic.twitter.com/SoU0oMnLzk
— Dominic Miranda (@DomMirandaTV) September 30, 2024
Yet, the main issue appears to be the performance of Haliburton and Siakam. Both are key to the Pacers’ system, and both have underperformed relative to their capabilities. For the Pacers to climb in the standings, their stars must lead by scoring more consistently.
Pascal Siakam’s Scoring Shift
Siakam has started the season with 20.6 points per game—his lowest average in seven years. He’s taking just 15 shots per game, well below the volume expected of a star in Rick Carlisle’s offense. While Siakam is excelling with a career-high in three-point shooting (45.8% on 4.8 attempts per game), his production in the paint has declined significantly. Currently, he’s averaging 11.2 points in the paint which is his lowest average since the 2019-20 season.
This decrease is likely strategic. Siakam is now in his 30s, so reducing physical contact may help prolong his career. But the next logical step for him in Carlisle’s system is to take even more threes, pushing his attempts above six per game. A minor increase could see Siakam’s scoring rise above 24 points per game, maintaining his efficiency while adapting his game for longevity.
Tyrese Haliburton’s Slow Return from Injury
Haliburton, recovering from a hamstring injury, hasn’t returned to his pre-injury form. Last season, he made sure to meet the All-NBA minimum games requirement by playing 69 games, a season count he’s only achieved twice. However, his stats this season have taken a hit. After averaging over 20 points in his first two full seasons with Indiana, he’s currently at just 14.6 points per game. His assists are also down from 10.9 per game to 6.6, and his shooting splits—a rough 34.6/25.0/66.7—reflect the challenge of finding his rhythm.
For a franchise cornerstone like Haliburton, these numbers aren’t sustainable. A team with its two All-Stars averaging under 21 points each won’t compete in today’s NBA. Haliburton’s struggles were evident in their near-collapse against the Boston Celtics. As the Pacers’ fourth-quarter lead vanished, Haliburton went one-for-four from the field while Siakam missed his only shot attempt. Both stars picked up in overtime, with Siakam’s six points and game-sealing three-pointer, but the inconsistent shooting from their stars remains a concern.
The Urgency for Scoring Leadership
The Pacers rely heavily on Siakam and Haliburton, who combine for a 60% cap hit with each earning $42.17 million. To justify this investment, they need to lead offensively. This pressure, especially, is on Haliburton. Siakam’s numbers suggest he’s adapting his game somewhat effectively, but Haliburton’s struggles show signs of lingering injury effects. The Pacers may need to monitor his health closely, as any scoring drought from their primary playmaker affects the team’s rhythm.
If Haliburton can’t ramp up his production, Indiana may need to find scoring support elsewhere. Bennedict Mathurin, currently scoring 15.8 points off the bench, could be that answer. In their overtime win over Boston, Mathurin shined with 30 points on 9-for-17 shooting. His impressive performance suggests he’s ready for a bigger role and could help reduce the burden on the Pacers’ struggling stars.
The Pacers Need Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to Up their Scoring
For Indiana to recapture its scoring prowess, they need Haliburton and Siakam to shoulder their share of the offensive load. Siakam’s increased three-point efficiency is a positive development, but he’ll need to attempt more shots to keep defenses stretched. Haliburton, too, must regain his pre-injury form to facilitate the team’s high-paced offense. Should they continue to struggle, Mathurin may emerge as a third-scoring option, giving Indiana the offensive boost they need. In short, the Pacers’ pathway to success lies in decisive performances from their stars.
