The Houston Rockets were without a point guard for the entire 2025-26 season. The Fred VanVleet ACL injury was the cause of that. If the Rockets’ post-elimination interviews are anything to go by, the team’s offseason plan is reliant on his healthy return in 2026-27. But what should Rockets fans expect from the 32-year-old point guard?
What Should Rockets Fans Expect From Fred VanVleet’s ACL Return?
The VanVleet ACL Situation
The ACL is the anterior cruciate ligament. It is so called as one of two ligaments that form a cross (cruciate) in the human knee, specifically, the back one (anterior). VanVleet’s ACL tear occurred during the offseason between the 2024-25 and 2025-26 NBA seasons, causing him to miss the latter.
In the former, VanVleet averaged 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.6 steals. Crucially for Houston’s offense, he averaged 34.5% from three on 7.7 attempts per game. That might not seem very good, and for much of the season, VanVleet was woeful from deep, but defenses did respect him out there, and VanVleet’s hot shooting in the playoffs was the only thing that dragged Houston’s first-round loss out to seven games. With even more woeful spacing in 2025-26, the Rockets’ first-round elimination came in Game 6. Is VanVleet going to return in 2026-27 as the same player he was?
Ligament tears are up in the NBA. It’s no real surprise, as NBA players are putting the most stress on their bodies in the history of the sport. The pace keeps getting faster and faster. Modern offenses are increasingly reliant on constant movement, even in the half-court. Step-back threes and sudden changes of direction put huge stress on the body. These are especially relevant concerns for a guard.
The VanVleet ACL injury is far from anomalous. Kyrie Irving missed all of 2025-26 as well, in his case due to an ACL tear sustained in March the previous season. The 36-year-old Jimmy Butler tore his ACL in January this season, leaving the Warriors desperate to hit big in the draft.
But similar to VanVleet’s ACL situation, nobody knows how those players will perform when they return. So what about the players who did return from ACL injuries?
Players Who Have Returned From ACL Tears
There is more than one example of a guard who sustained a significant ACL injury and bounced back just fine. Baron Davis (1997-98 college season) and Kyle Lowry (2004-05) both sustained ACL tears before their NBA careers even started. They went on to be multiple-time All-Stars. Of course, having occurred so early in their basketball careers, they were significantly younger than VanVleet at the time of their recovery.
That was also true of Jamal Crawford, whose torn ACL required surgery in October 2001. Crawford missed all but 23 games of his sophomore season as a result. Nonetheless, he went on to have an excellent career as a three-time Sixth Man of the Year.
Even Zach LaVine, who was in his third NBA season (2016-17) when he tore his ACL, was only 21 years old. He bounced back to be a multiple-time All-Star, though his dunk contest days were behind him.
What About Guards in Their 30s?
Ricky Rubio likewise tore his ACL in his rookie season (2011-12) while defending Kobe Bryant. Unfortunately, Rubio is also an example of something else. While all of these success stories involve very young players at the beginning of their careers, Rubio would suffer another ACL tear later in his career. Rubio tore his left ACL in December 2021. He was able to return the following season but was unable to reach his former level of play.
Rubio played just 33 more games in the NBA following his second ACL tear. He averaged 5.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in 17.2 minutes per game. Per 36 minutes, his numbers were not actually that down. However, Rubio was now in a bench role, and his three-point shot had abandoned him. Never a noted three-point shooter, Rubio had improved over the latter half of his career. In 2022-23, however (his final year), Rubio shot just 25.6% from distance. Like VanVleet, Rubio was 32 years old.
Expecting VanVleet’s situation to turn out the same as Rubio’s would be illogical. For one thing, Rubio technically stopped playing for mental health reasons, rather than strictly because of his deteriorating body. Still, there are similarities between the two players. Neither was ever noted for their explosiveness. One might also expect VanVleet’s defensive tenacity to take a bigger hit from a knee injury than Rubio’s playmaking pizazz. That might not be strictly accurate, though. Perimeter defense is certainly one of VanVleet’s calling cards. Even so, his quick hands, smart positioning, and stocky build are all more important to his defensive profile than lateral quickness.
Why The Rockets Need A Full VanVleet ACL Recovery
If the Rockets want 2026-27 to go any better than 2025-26, they will need a complete VanVleet ACL recovery. The team sorely lacked his steadying presence on offense. The Rockets went from 11th in turnovers (11th fewest per game) in 2024-25 with him to 24th (7th most) in 2025-26 without him. Already bottom ten in three-pointers attempted per game before VanVleet’s injury, the Rockets also dropped to the bottom three without him.
Of course, in the long term, if the Rockets are serious about competing with Alperen Sengun or Amen Thompson, an upgrade from VanVleet may prove necessary. Since that seems unlikely for 2026-27, though, a full VanVleet ACL recovery remains Rockets fans’ best hope. Otherwise, the Rockets will be accelerating towards getting torn to bits in the first round once again.
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