The Oklahoma City Thunder are seeking a firm, commanding 3-0 series lead as they take the semifinals series on the road. But with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home, will they avoid going into a 0-3 hole? So far, the momentum is pointing towards another win for the defending champs. But there are still a few numbers that may tilt the odds into the Lakers’ favor — at least a little.
Thunder vs Lakers Game 3 Preview: Calm Before the Storm
After what was a controversial Game 2, Los Angeles is desperate to find answers and hope to shield themselves from the brewing storm. But given the way this series has unfolded, it seems Oklahoma City might have its way again, as it did in Phoenix. If this is going to be a long series than most people think, the Lakers have to find a way to shut down OKC and give themselves a chance.
If they want to prove to the world that they’re a contending team, now is the time to try and steal a single game from the defending champions.
An SGA Masterclass is Long Overdue
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been pedestrian for the first two games of this Thunder-Lakers saga. He had 18 points in Game 1 in addition to seven turnovers, which is the first time he’s scored less than 20 points since Game 3 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals (14 points), when OKC got hammered by the Minnesota Timberwolves. In Game 2, he was in foul trouble and only had 22 points, with two assists and rebounds apiece. Now that’s definitely not his usual game.
"The way basketball works, usually the more physical team and the team that imposes their will more just wins."
— SGA on being the more physical team against the Lakers. pic.twitter.com/fyh3pGryyb
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) May 8, 2026
With averages of 29.2 points, 6.7 assists and 3.2 rebounds, SGA is far from his MVP self. He’s getting outplayed by LeBron James, who’s been the best player in the series so far. Even Chet Holmgren has had a better stride, simply because Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes haven’t been able to do anything to stop him. Still, fans and critics know that Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have a long trend of playing at a subpar level. The fact that he didn’t score less than 20 points any longer than one game is proof.
That being said, expect the reigning MVP to come out with his best game and fire away against the Lakers. He’s equally dangerous when he travels as he is at home, with 31.0 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.7 rebounds in 31 games on the road this season. If Los Angeles tries to change up its gameplan and decides not to double-team him, as the OKC bench has been a massive threat, expect SGA to go off.
OKC Has its Mishaps on the Road
Despite some predictions that the Thunder may win, it’s still hard to argue the fact that this same Oklahoma City squad isn’t really doing well when it comes to playing in Game 3, on the road. In fact, they have a 3-4 record in all Game 3s since 2024, when the SGA era of this team kicked off. They’ve seen some tough finishes, like that poor outing in Game 3 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals. That says a lot about OKC’s hopes of trying to put this game to bed.
Still, the defending champs are champions for a reason. On top of that, the Thunder have made a lot of drastic changes to its roster. Most of them are quite minimal compared to blockbuster moves, but more in value. Just look at how Jared McCain is playing in this series alone. As a player added in the second half of the season and finding his stride in the playoffs, OKC really has its eyes for great talent. Now the only thing to wait for is if McCain can make the same impact he did in the first two games to help the Thunder avoid another Game 3 loss.
LeBron is a Beast at Home
James has been the consistent positive for the Lakers in this series.
With no Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves yet to be a promising x-factor for them, the King has been carrying the team in his back. He scored 27 points in Game 1 on 12-17 shooting, then 23 points on 9-18 shooting in Game 2. It’s no secret that many people admire James’ longevity and athleticism. But if L.A. is going to get this one, they may have to see him go supernova and take over. After all, it has been a while since OKC has seen a 40-point performance in the regular season against them. James was the last player to drop 40 on the Thunder, back in Dec. 2023. Mind you, he’s already a Laker by that time.
If the Lakers want to have any chance of winning a game in this series, LeBron James has to take over and drop 50.
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) May 8, 2026
In three home games this playoffs, James has posted 24.0 points, 9.0 assists, and 6.3 rebounds. Now that’s a decent stat line, but he’s definitely doing well enough that he may even bump it up for a 30-piece to help the Lakers beat OKC. However, he’s got to outmuscle the likes of Lu Dort if he’s going to score more, and help Los Angeles not go down 0-3.
Will Thunder-Lakers Game 3 End Differently?
Despite all the things that the Lakers have tried to negate SGA and to beat OKC, the defending champs have won by 18 in the first two games. At this point, many would say that the Thunder-Lakers Game 3 might inevitably end up the same. Regardless, it will take a superhuman effort from the Lakers to deny Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Thunder.
© Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
