The Orlando Magic gets another shot at closing out the Detroit Pistons after failing to do so on Wednesday. Can the Magic become the seventh No. 8 seed to upset a No. 1 seed?
Pistons vs. Magic Game 6: Preview, Prediction, and Odds
Orlando takes a 3-2 lead into Friday’s home game at the Kia Center in what has been a highly competitive Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. As Detroit extended the series on Wednesday, it defended its home court with a 116-109 victory. Cade Cunningham led the way for the Pistons with a franchise playoff-high 45 points.
Detroit took control of the game for the opening tap. The Pistons never trailed and led by as many as 17 points, including 15 in the fourth quarter. Four Pistons scored in double figures as their starters-outcored out the Magic’s first five 98-87 despite Paola Banchero‘s career-high 45 points.
Both teams shot the ball well in Game 5. The Pistons shot 49% from the field and the Maguc. While Orlando knocked down seven more threes than Detroit, the Pistons dominated the boards (49-33) and made 12 more free throws (28-16) than the Magic.
The Pistons In The Series
Detroit has really struggled offensively this series, though the Pistons have been strong defensively. The Pistons, who entered the playoffs with the third-highest shooting percentage in the league, have only connected on 43.3% of their shots from the field. They have also made just 8.6 treys at a 29.1% of their attempts from deep. Cunningham ( 32.8 points and 7.0 assists) and Tobias Harris (19.8 points and 7.6 rebounds) have been the Pistons’ only consistent offensive players.
While the Pistons have done some of the things that have helped them earn the No. 1 seed in the East — getting to the free throw line and hitting the offensive boards (12.2 a game) — turnovers (18.0) continue to be their cryptonite.
Detroit has been fantastic on defense. The Pistons have control of the led paint on that end of the floor, limiting the Magic to 56% at the rim and 35% from the mid-range. They have a +3.2 rebound advantage and have swatted a playoff-high 10.2 shots a game. Overall, the Pistons are holding the Magic to 40.4% shooting from the field, though fouls are a problem.
The Magic In The Series
Orlando has not shot the ball well all season. Just like the Magic’s defense has been a major cause of the Pistons offensive troubles, Detroit’s defense has played a major role in the Magic’s struggles. The Magic, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, is shooting 40.4% from the field, though they have shot it well from deep, averaging nearly 12 threes per game at 34.3%.
Banchero has struggled with efficiency, but the 23-year-old forward averages 25.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists. Banchero has shot it well from deep, knocking down 2.0 treys at a 38.5% clip, and is attempting nearly 11 free throws per game, though he has made them at a 4.8% clip.
Desmond Bane (18.8 points, 3.8 threes), Franz Wagner (16.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals), and Jalen Suggs (13.0 points, 2.4 threes) have all been productive but inefficient shooting the ball. Wendell Carter Jr. (11.8 points 8.8 rebounts) is the only Magic player shooting over 50% from the field in the series.
Orlando has been very good at getting to the free-throw line all season long. The Magic have gotten to the charity stripe nearly 30 times a game in the playoffs, which is the third most. However, the Magic are making a playoff worst 70.3% of their attempts.
Orlando has been outstanding on the defensive end. The Magic have defended the rim pretty well and have been excellent at guarding the 3-point line. Fouling and transition defense have been huge issues for the Magic.
Injury Report
Pistons
Kevin Huerter (thigh) is questionable
Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable
Harris sprained his left ankle during Game 5, but still managed to produce 31 points and eight rebounds in 31 minutes. So, unless the injury has flared up, expect the 33-year-old forward to play tonight. Harris has been superb in the series and looks rejuvenated, reaching the 20-point plateau in each of the last three games and producing a double-double in Game 2.
If Harris can’t play, Isaiah Stewart or Javonte Green is projected to start. Meanwhile, Huerter is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game due to an abductor strain. Huerter has struggled shooting the ball in the series and averaged 10.5 minutes a game.
Magic
Jonathan Isaac (knee) is doubtful
Franz Wagner (calf) is out
The Magic won’t have Wagner for Game 6 as he will sit out his second straight game due to a calf injury. Jamal Cain figures to start for Waner once again. Cain struggled offensively in his start in Game five, despite being ultra-aggressive, finishing with five points and four rebounds in 25 minutes.
Game Odds
Spread: Pistons -3.5
Over/Under: 209.5
Money Line: Pistons -182, Magic +150
Prediction
Expect this game to be another slobber knocker as the defenses once again take center stage. The winner of Game 6 will likely ultimately come down to who controls the tempo. The Pistons want a slow pace, as they trust their superb defense and are the better rebounding team, one that loves to pound the glass.
For the Pistons to control the tempo, they will need to limit their turnovers. Conversely, the Magic want a faster pace and to create havoc. Getting out in transition will be especially important for the Magic with Wagner out.
Game 6 is the 10th meeting of the year, with the Magic winning five of the previous. Through the five playoff games, Orlando has outscored Detroit by an average of 102.2-101.5. The Magic have also outscored the Pistons 105-103 over the last three contests. However, only one of the previous nine contests has been decided by three points or fewer.
Here is the thing: the Pistons are the better defensive and rebounding team, and they have a huge size advantage with Wagner out for the Magic. The Pistons’ start has been more efficient than the Magic’s in the series. Moreover, the Magic are just 25-24 without Wagner this season, with a scoring margin of around -2.0.
As long as Detroit limits its turnovers and takes advantage of its opportunities against the Magic, the Pistons should win the game. The Pistons have shot the ball better than the Magic over the last three games, and their rim protection and perimeter defense have been excellent throughout the series.
Top Pick: Pistons -182
Other Bets: Lean Under 209.5; the best bet is to pass.
Jalen Duren: Under 13.5 points
Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
