Two acronyms. Five letters. Name, Image, Likeness (NIL). National Basketball Association (NBA). Now more connected than ever, these two entities are interacting much in the way that antimatter is created, protons sent crashing into metal targets at near-light speeds to produce antiparticles.
Examining the NIL Era’s Polarizing Impact on the NBA Draft
This year, 71 early entrants have declared for the 2026 NBA Draft, per the NBA. As noted by DraftExpress expert Jonathan Givony, that number is unusually low, “down from 106 last year and a peak of 363 in 2021.” In fact, it’s the lowest mark since the 2003 NBA Draft, in which 73 prospects were tabbed as early entrants.
To be clear, the 71 players that the NBA announced have filed as early entrants the upcoming draft don’t include the international prospects. For comparison, just 42 of the early entrants in 2003 were from American high schools or colleges. Nevertheless, there’s undoubtedly been a shift since 2021, when the NCAA officially adopted their name, image and likeness policy.
The National Basketball Association (NBA) announced today that 71 players have filed as early entry candidates for NBA Draft 2026, which will be held Tuesday, June 23 (First Round) and Wednesday June 24 (Second Round) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. pic.twitter.com/GfV338yqsz
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 27, 2026
Rather than leaping onto the big stage, these potential draft candidates are instead jumping through the transfer portal window, which was launched in 2018. Several of these prospects’ decisions to forgo the draft are often cushioned by their NIL earning power. Here are the figures (h/t John Brice of USA Today Sports):
- 2025-26: 4,939 (2,605 D-I)
- 2024-25: 5,438 (2,754 D-I)
- 2023-24: 4,343 (2,146 D-I)
- 2022-23: 3,663 (1,843 D-I)
- 2021-22: 3,355 (1,788 D-I)
A Shrinking Pool Doesn’t Benefit Expansion
In sum, there have been 21,738 college basketball players to enter the transfer portal since the 2021-22 season. Of those, 11,136 were Division I athletes. Now, that isn’t to say that over 11,000 players would have entered the NBA Draft since 2022 if NIL (or the transfer portal) didn’t exist. Even so, if the NBA draft pool had continued to grow after peaking in 2021, there theoretically would have been at least 2,500 early entrants, approximately. Instead, there have been around 900, with the number descending each year.
On the surface, this seems like a problem for the NBA, especially with the league targeting the 2028-29 season for a two-team expansion. Simply put, how can the league grow its talent base if there are fewer players declaring for the draft? Make no mistake, this is a legitimate question that will need to be answered in (or by) time.
How The NIL Era Can Help The NBA
Though there’s an obvious concern, there are a couple of ways the NIL era can help the NBA.
For one, just because a player is eligible for the draft doesn’t mean they’re NBA-ready. Countless prospects have moved up to the NBA-level, only to discover that they aren’t quite there yet. Players staying in college for longer won’t guarantee their success in the NBA. All the same, they’ll have more time to develop not just their bodies or skill, but their maturity. This, in turn, could allow them to have a smoother transition to the NBA from college.
Secondly, there have been a number of players whose primary passion appeared to be signing lucrative contracts. Generational wealth undoubtedly has a ubiquitous attraction. Nevertheless, there’s a difference between a player wanting to be highly paid and one whose primary focus is their pay grade. Fair or foul, myriad NBA veterans (e.g., Greg Ostertag, Latrell Sprewell, Otto Porter Jr., Ben Simmons) have been accused of the latter. If all things are equal aside from the money and a player chooses college over the NBA, that message speaks for itself.
© Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
