There’s plenty of doom and gloom around the Houston Rockets heading into Game 3. Despite the return of Kevin Durant, they lost Game 2 of their first-round playoff series versus the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night. That put them in an 0-2 hole. However, as slow and ugly as Houston’s offense has looked, people do seem to be forgetting something. The Lakers held home court. Now it’s the Rockets’ chance to do the same. Will they succeed?
Can Rockets Defend Home Court To Tie Series?
The Houston Rockets went 52-30 in the regular season. As with most NBA teams, the splits show they performed better at home than on the road. The Rockets were toying with opponents at their home arena, the Toyota Center, going 30-11. However, on the road, they were closer to a Corolla than a sports car, barely over .500 at just 22-19.
Interestingly, those concerned about Houston’s offense should remain so. The Rockets’ only significant offensive improvement at home versus away is that they shoot a little better from three (37.9% compared with 35.1%). From the field, it’s a difference of less than a percentage point (48.3% compared with 47.4%). Surprisingly, they actually attempt fewer free throws at home as well (22.7 per game compared with 24.1). In total, they score almost exactly one point less per game at home compared with the road (114.8 compared with 115.7).
But the Rockets won more games at home than away, despite playing 41 of each. So how did they do it? The way head coach Ime Udoka wants them to win every game: with defense.
The Rockets’ Defense Home/Away
The Rockets’ opponents shot 4.2% worse from three in the Toyota Center compared with other arenas (33.0% compared with 37.2%). They shot 2.2% worse from the field (44.9% compared with 47.1%) and attempted 1.6 fewer free throws per game (21.3 compared with 22.9). In total, Houston’s opponents scored 5.4 fewer points per game (107.3 compared with 112.7).
How much of that is really the Rockets’ defense versus random variance or opponents’ travel? It’s hard to say. The Rockets’ opponents shot 4.4% worse from the free-throw line when the Rockets played at home as well. Does that mean it’s all in the opponents’ heads? And for that matter, are these differences even notable among home and away splits? Well, actually, in at least one case, yes. The Rockets go from the second-lowest opponent three-point percentage at home to 22nd on the road.
What About the Lakers?
Of course, the Rockets’ home court record this season is only half of the equation. You also have to consider the home/away difference for the Lakers.
Interestingly, while the Rockets have the second-lowest home court opponent three-point percentage in the NBA, the Lakers have technically the lowest with an almost identical percentage. Even more interestingly, the percentages are almost identical for their road opponent three-point shooting as well. The Rockets go from second with 33.0% to twenty-second with 37.2%. The Lakers go from first with 33.0% to twenty-third with 37.3%.
For whatever reason, neither of these teams can defend the three-point line on the road. While much is made of the Rockets’ terrible shooting this season, the Lakers aren’t actually much better. The Rockets attempted the sixth-fewest threes per game at 32.3 this season and shot the 12th-worst percentage at 35.1%. The Lakers took the seventh-fewest threes per game at 32.8 and shot the seventh-worst percentage at 34.2%.
The Series So Far
But the Lakers certainly took advantage of the Rockets’ shoddy road perimeter defense in the first two games of this series. They shot 52.6% on 19 attempts in Game 1 and 46.4% on 28 attempts in Game 2. Luke Kennard has been lighting the Rockets up, going 8-of-11 from three in the series so far.
Meanwhile, the Rockets’ own Schroedinger’s sharpshooter, Reed Sheppard, is 5-of-17 so far (29.4%). Assuming Udoka ever lets him play another minute, that percentage should improve. Sheppard’s personal home and away splits from three this season are 42.7% at home and 35.9% on the road.
Of course, a dampener on Houston optimism is that Kennard, unusually, has actually shot better on the road in 2025-26. The Lakers’ latest white knight has splits of 44.9% at home and, the most terrifying coin flip since the Dark Knight, 50.0% on the road.
Finally, it has to be said, even if the Rockets are able to hold home court, that’s only going to get them so far. The Lakers are the fourth seed and would play any theoretical Game 7 at home. If the Rockets want to win the series, they’re going to have to win in LA. For now, if they don’t want to get swept, they’re going to have to prove they can win in Texas. It might be just a quirk, but it’s the Rockets’ best bet to avoid a quick exit.
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