How Will TJ Otzelberger Try To Compensate For Being Without Jefferson?
While Jefferson has yet to miss a game in his two seasons at Iowa State, the Cyclones have been stagnant when he sits. Rebounding also becomes a concern, especially on the defensive end, against Kentucky’s big frontcourt. The Cyclones, who are a fantastic offensive rebounding club, are a +5.0 on the boards for the season, while the Wildcats have a +3.0 margin. However, the Wildcats are vulnerable on offense.
Additionally, depth becomes an issue for the Cyclones. Otzelberger, who is 123-52 in his five seasons in Ames (IA), will likely go with a three-guard starting lineup, thus giving Heise his fourth start of the campaign. Kentucky also uses a three-guard lineup.
If Jefferson is sidelined, Lipsey will have to become more involved offensively. Lipsey, who is having a career season, ultimately becomes the lead initiator and facilitator. However, Otzelberger will likely rely on Heise and Toure to create. However, if the Cyclones are going to get by the Wildcats, Momcilovic will have to get hot from deep.
Iowa State’s defense becomes sticky without Jefferson. Not only is rebounding a problem, but the Cyclones also aren’t as good switching on that end without him. Also, the Wildcats will be able to target Momcilovic, who is by far and away the Cyclones’ worst defender. While Lipsey can create chaos for opposing ballhandlers, he will have a tough matchup against Denzel Aberdeen, who is four inches taller than Lipsey. Also, Pleta and fellow freshman Jamarion Batemon struggle defensively.
Despite potentially being without Jefferson, Iowa State still has a good chance of getting past Kentucky. Iowa State rolled past Syracuse and Creighton without Tipsey. However, there are concerns, as Kentucky doesn’t turn the ball over and rebounds well. Plus, Otega Oweh can take over the game, and the Cats are efficient inside the paint as well as get to the free-throw line about 20 times a game.
With Jefferson, I have the Cyclones as eight-point favorites. Without him, the game becomes a toss-up. Best bet is over 145.5 points.
