We move to day two of the NIT Tournament’s first round as the Dayton Flyers grapple with the Bradley Braves at Carver Arena in Peoria, Illinois. Dayton comes in off a 70-62 loss to VCU in the finals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. They are now at 23-11 on the season. Bradley went 21-12 overall, including 13-7 within the Missouri Valley Conference. They fell to Northern Iowa by a score of 73-69 in the semis of the MVC Tournament. Which team will bounce back from their losses and move on to the 2nd round of the NIT Tournament? Continue reading to see my Dayton vs Bradley prediction.
Dayton Flyers vs Bradley Braves: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: Dayton -1.5; Over/Under 143
Dayton Flyers
Dayton enters the NIT at 23-11 after a 70-62 loss to VCU in the A‑10 title game, but their overall form remains strong. The Flyers have won eight of their last ten, and their efficiency gives them a solid foundation. Dayton averages 74.4 points and shoots 44.6%, relying on steady production from Javon Bennett, De’Shayne Montgomery, and Amael L’Etang. Bennett leads the offense with strong shot creation, while Montgomery adds downhill scoring and defensive versatility. L’Etang provides interior finishing and rim protection. Dayton also shoots 75.1% from the line, which helps in close games. Their balanced scoring and disciplined style make them difficult to speed up.
Defensively, Dayton allows 69.9 points and holds opponents to 43.6% shooting, ranking among the stronger units in the A‑10. They defend the three well, allowing 35.6%, and their length helps contest perimeter shots. Dayton rebounds effectively with 32.9 boards, but they must improve on the defensive glass, as opponents average 33.9 rebounds. Bradley attacks the paint and shoots well from deep, so Dayton must stay disciplined. The Flyers also need to limit turnovers, as Bradley forces mistakes and converts in transition. If Dayton controls tempo and protects the ball, their defense can dictate the matchup.
For Dayton to win, they must rely on execution and interior strength. Bennett must control pace and hit timely shots. Montgomery must attack mismatches and generate pressure on the rim. L’Etang must win his matchup inside and protect the paint. Dayton also needs consistent perimeter shooting to prevent Bradley from collapsing defensively. Their best path is a controlled, low‑mistake game where they limit Bradley’s transition scoring. If Dayton rebounds well, defends the arc, and maintains offensive balance, they can advance in the NIT.
Bradley Braves
Bradley enters the NIT at 21-12 after a 73-69 loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC semifinals. The Braves went 13-7 in conference play and remain one of the Missouri Valley’s most balanced teams. Bradley averages 77.6 points and shoots 43.8%, relying on strong guard play from Jaquan Johnson, Alex Huibregtse, and AJ Smith. Johnson leads the team with 17.1 points and provides dynamic scoring. Huibregtse adds perimeter shooting, while Smith contributes rebounding and physicality. Bradley also shoots 35.5% from three, which helps stretch defenses. Their offensive balance gives them multiple scoring options in late‑game situations.
Defensively, Bradley allows 73.4 points and holds opponents to 45.1% shooting. They defend the three well, allowing 36.1%, and their length helps contest perimeter shots. Bradley rebounds effectively with 34.3 boards, and their interior defense is anchored by Ahmet Jonovic, who adds size and rim protection. Their biggest challenge will be containing Dayton’s disciplined half‑court offense and preventing clean looks for Bennett and Montgomery. Bradley must also avoid foul trouble, as Dayton attacks the rim and draws contact. If Bradley forces turnovers and limits second‑chance points, they can keep the game tight.
For Bradley to win, they must push tempo and rely on their guard play. Johnson must score efficiently and create pressure on Dayton’s defense. Huibregtse must hit perimeter shots to stretch the floor. Smith must win physical battles and contribute on the glass. Bradley also needs to control the boards and prevent Dayton from dominating the paint. Their best path is a balanced offensive effort with strong ball movement and consistent shooting. If Bradley defends the arc, wins the rebounding battle, and maintains offensive rhythm, they can challenge Dayton deep into the second half.
Predictions
Dayton enters this NIT matchup playing its best basketball of the season, winning eight of its last ten and showing far more consistency than Bradley. The Flyers also faced the tougher schedule, which prepares them well for a physical postseason game. Bennett, Montgomery, and L’Etang give Dayton a balanced core that scores efficiently and defends at a high level. Dayton allows only 69.9 points and holds opponents to 43.6% shooting, giving them a clear defensive edge. Bradley has gone 3-3 in its last six, and their offense can be streaky. Dayton’s discipline, shot selection, and defensive structure make the -1.5 number appealing in a controlled, half‑court matchup.
The total leans lower because Dayton’s recent games have consistently produced slow, defensive‑leaning results. Their last 10 games have gone 9-1 to the Under, and those contests have averaged just 131.8 points. Dayton plays at a measured pace, shoots fewer threes, and forces opponents into long possessions. Bradley averages 77.6 points, but they face a Dayton defense that limits clean looks and rarely gives up transition scoring. Both teams rebound well, which reduces second‑chance points and keeps possessions contained. With Dayton’s defensive consistency and slower pace on offense, the Under 143 fits the expected rhythm.
The most likely script features Dayton controlling tempo, defending the arc, and using efficient guard play to create separation late. Bennett can manage pace, Montgomery can attack mismatches, and L’Etang can protect the rim and finish inside. Bradley will compete, but their offense struggles when forced into contested jumpers. Dayton’s defensive edge, tougher schedule, and recent form all point toward a tight, lower‑scoring game. With both teams leaning on half‑court execution and limiting transition, Dayton -1.5 and the Under 143 align with the most probable flow of this NIT matchup.
Final Predictions: Dayton -1.5 & Under 143
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