The Chicago Cubs are facing a critical deadline this offseason, as the Rule 5 protection deadline looms on Tuesday. This milestone marks a pivotal moment for the Cubs’ front office, as they must decide which prospects to shield from the Rule 5 draft. Additionally, several players linked to potential trades with the Cubs are weighing whether to accept or decline qualifying offers from their current teams.
What You Need to Know
Rule 5 gives minor league players who haven’t made the big leagues with their respective teams an opportunity to try their luck with another organization. A player becomes eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he signed at age 18 and has five years of experience. Or if he signed at 19 and has four experience. In either case, he is eligible if he has not been promoted to the team’s 40-man roster.
Cubs Rule 5 Deadline Predictions
Key Rule 5 Eligible Players in the Cubs’ System
Players currently eligible for Rule 5 include Owen Caissie OF (2/34 Cubs/MLB Pipeline), Pablo Aliendo C (13 Cubs), Christian Franklin OF (22 Cubs) and Ben Cowles IF (29). Michael Arias RHP (Cubs 12), Luis Vazquez SS (21), and Porter Hodge RHP (26) are already on the 40-man roster.
Of the remaining four, Caissie is the most obvious choice for a promotion. The recent trade buzz on Caissie coming out of the GM conference is pretty hot. That signals the Cubs will likely protect their power-hitting recruit (.847 OPS/19 HR/75 RBI at Triple-A) with a to-the-big league roster.
The Cubs need catching depth, but Aliendo isn’t a good bet to be brought up at this point. Franklin and Cowles have some chance. Given the Cubs’ overall positional depth, it would be bold to predict they would be brought up at this point. Minor league star infielder Matt Shaw is going to be called up.
The Outlook for Players for Non-Tenders
Several Cubs’ players are on the shortlist for release by the front office. Among them are infielders Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal. Journeyman Mike Tauchman, 33, has been a valuable asset to the team. Relief pitcher Yency Almonte, who is recovering from right shoulder surgery, elected free agency.
Chicago’s 2023 closer, Adbert Alzolay, is coming recovering from Tommy John surgery. Odds are he will sign a minor league contract to remain with the team. Right-handed reliever Trey Wingenter, 30, could also be non-tendered making room on the 40-man roster.
The Qualifying Offer Outlook
The Cubs exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) last season. Signing a player who declines a qualifying offer means they would forfeit their second and fifth-highest draft picks in next year’s draft. They would also incur a $1M hit against their international bonus pool. That they exceeded the CBT by only $280,000 suggests a conflict of reasoning as to how to build the team.
A less pessimistic view is that the front office is simply striking a balance. The plan is to grow its farm system while occasionally spending big on high-value players. Whatever the motivation, the Cubs aren’t likely to sign players who decline their qualifying offers. They’re more likely to shun these deals in favor of free-agent acquisitions and other trades.
That would rule out the possibility of landing free agents Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. All three are impact players considering qualifying offers who have been linked to the Cubs through the MLB rumor mill at one point or another.
Expect the Cubs to Bide Their Time
Jed Hoyer isn’t known for making snap decisions, but expect Caissie to be on the 40-man roster before Tuesday’s deadline. As for Franklin and Cowles, their placement could mean the front office is looking for multi-player trade options for a front-line player or pitcher.
As for Aliendo’s future, the need to bring in a veteran catcher is too great to assume he would make the Cubs roster next season. Chicago’s Rule 5 deadline decisions will set the stage for what might be another impactful offseason.
Main Photo: © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
