Nolan Jones‘ 2024 did not go how anyone expected after his stellar 2023. In a low-profile trade in November 2022, the Colorado Rockies traded minor-league infielder Juan Brito to the Cleveland Guardians for Jones. Jones had minimal major-league experience as a third baseman but had shown enough to draw the Rockies’ interest. In 28 games with the Guardians, Jones hit .244/.309/.372 with 21 hits, two home runs, and 13 RBI.
He began 2023 in Triple-A but was called up to the Rockies on May 26 and played immediately in the outfield. This allowed the Rockies to give him consistent at-bats and see his fit as an outfielder since Ryan McMahon was the everyday third baseman for Colorado. While Jones went hitless in his first game, he went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI in a 10-7 win against the New York Mets on May 27. He took advantage of the consistent playing time and became one of the Rockies’ most reliable hitters.
472-FOOT WALK-OFF HOMER BY NOLAN JONES! 💣
(via @Rockies)
pic.twitter.com/t4IsGUPE04— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 11, 2023
In 106 games, Jones hit .297/.389/.542 while recording 109 hits, 20 home runs, and 62 RBI. The Rockies were seeing a great return on the trade and had perhaps found a gem. His 4.3 WAR led the team by a wide margin, and he finished second on the team in homers. Suddenly, the Rockies had emerging young talent at several key positions, with outfielders Brenton Doyle, Jones, and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. There was excitement heading into the 2024 season to see this team’s young talent continue to grow in their rebuild.
What Went Wrong for Nolan Jones in 2024 After a Great 2023
Slow Start
Nolan Jones began the 2024 season in a major slump, hitting .179/.256/.269 with only one home run and five RBI over 78 at-bats. The promising power he had shown at the plate in 2023 vanished. On April 30, Jones was placed on the IL with a lower back strain. This gave him a chance to reset and get some low-pressure at-bats in the minor leagues. Jones began his rehab assignment on May 15 but suffered a setback shortly before he was about to come back to the Rockies.
It proved to be a major setback, as Jones wasn’t activated from the IL until June 14. June was a slight improvement for Jones but was still well below the lofty numbers he had put up in 2023. His power and plate discipline had still not arrived, as he hit only two homers with 18 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. While the power was still missing, he began July with his best stretch of the season to that point, hitting .296/.424/.333 over 27 at-bats. However, his nagging back injury returned as he went back on the 10-day IL with another lower back strain on July 13.
The Best Ability is Availability
Injuries are always one of the most difficult things in sports, as they are often out of the athlete’s control and make it very hard to gain a consistent rhythm. The constant back injuries and inconsistencies at the plate coincided to make Jones’ 2024 very difficult. He did not return from his second stint on the IL until August 18, marking the second time in 2024 that he was out a month or longer. This was a stark contrast from 2023, as he had played 106 games without any long-term stays on the IL. In the remainder of the season, Jones hit around .270, but the power and extra-base hits never arrived. Statcast exemplified the struggles Jones faced in 2024 compared to 2023.
Power Outage + Road Struggles
2023
- xwOBA: .362
- xBA: .249
- xSLG: .499
- Avg Exit Velocity: 90.1
- Barrel %: 15.7
2024
- xwOBA: .288
- xBA: .214
- xSLG: .328
- Avg Exit Velocity: 88.2
- Barrel %: 5.9
Jones maintained an average exit velocity, ranking in the 65th percentile, but the two biggest categories to explain Jones’ power outage are xSLG and Barrel %. Per Statcast, Jones was in the 88th and 94th percentile, respectively, for xSLG and Barrel % in 2023. His power emerged at Coors Field. In 2024, though, Jones saw major declines as he could not replicate the power he had shown in 2023. He also struggled mightily on the road in 2024.
After playing well on the road in 2023, Jones failed to bring his offense out of Denver in 2024. In 2023, Jones hit .306/.398/.530 with ten home runs and 33 RBI in 183 home at-bats. Meanwhile, he hit .280/.380/.554 with 10 home runs and 29 RBI in 184 away at-bats. In 2024, Jones hit .255/.372/.328 in 137 home at-bats compared to .193/.258/.311 in 119 road at-bats. While Jones is not the first Rockie to struggle hitting on the road, if he can replicate his 2023 home-road splits in 2025, it could go a long way towards improving this Rockies offense.
Where Do Jones and the Rockies Go From Here?
Considering Nolan Jones stumbled out of the blocks and dealt with a nagging back injury all season that resulted in extended IL stints, the Rockies could reasonably give him a mulligan for 2024. They saw the potential he showed in 2023 for an extended period, and there’s no reason to think he can’t replicate that if he stays healthy. He is still only 26 and is projected by Spotrac to play on a very team-friendly contract of $800K for 2025. He also has one of the best outfield arms in the game per Statcast, ranking in the 100th percentile for arm strength in 2023-24. But he is one of many Rockies batters who will have to improve his strikeout rate, as he had a 30% rate in 2023-24.
Altogether, the Rockies are looking to shed payroll in 2025 as they look to give as much development as possible to their young talent. With the potential Jones showed in 2023, along with his youth and team-friendly contract, it would be prudent for the Rockies to give Jones continued playing time and hope that his 2023 resembles his 2025.
Photo Credit: © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
