Encouraging Signs From Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers has had a rocky season in his return from his second Tommy John surgery. His 5.38 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate were both by far the worst marks of his career. The movement characteristics on his pitches noticeably regressed and contributed to the underwhelming season. However, there were some encouraging signs in his Game 3 start against the Mets in the NLDS. Buehler has been an excellent postseason pitcher in his career, and he can build on this performance.

Encouraging Signs From Walker Buehler

Fastball Falloff

Velocity and stuff typically returns following Tommy John Surgery, and command tends to take a little longer. For Buehler, it is a bit of a different case as it is his second surgery, and the list of success stories is shorter. His velocity numbers were down a touch this season compared to his peak years, and he had the worst walk rate of his career. Although his walk rate was merely average now, that, combined with his diminished stuff, provided him a small margin for error.

The biggest difference for Buehler was his four-seam fastball quality. In his best seasons from 2018-2021, these were some of his four-seam fastball characteristics:

In this span, Walker Buehler was one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball by fWAR. A major contributor to that prolonged stretch of dominance was the elite quality of his four-seam fastball. During this 4-year span, Buehler’s four-seam fastball ranked 4th in pitcher run value according to Baseball Savant, ranking only behind three future Hall of Famers in Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.  In 2024, he has not been able to replicate it to that standard as it was one of the worst four-seam fastballs in baseball.  Hitters feasted on this offering as it allowed a gaudy .653 xSLG. Here are the same characteristics of the pitch in 2024:

A noticeable theme as the years have gone on is Buehler lowering his release point. That certainly affects the induced Vertical Break numbers not being as high. His release point is as low as in his career, and the corresponding results have not been friendly.

Promising Outing?

Walker Buehler had an encouraging outing in his Game 3 NLDS start against the Mets. While he only lasted 4 innings, he posted an excellent swing-and-miss rate along with other positive underlying metrics. Although his four-seam fastball velocity was below his season average at 93.8 MPH, he had just over 20 inches of induced Vertical Break (iVB) from a 5.5-foot release height. Any four-seam fastball nearing 20 inches of vertical rise is a plus pitch.  Obtaining that mark from a lower release height is especially remarkable.

Walker Buehler had a very effective outing today, tossing 4.0 Scoreless IP with 6 K

Buehler’s stuff looked the best that it’s been all season, which led him to 18 Whiffs

He chose the right time to have his most dominant start of the season pic.twitter.com/It5q1iT2Vv

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) October 17, 2024

Across the regular season, the only pitcher to be in the vicinity of that iVB number from the same release height was Shota Imanaga.  Even still, he was a few notches below at an average of 18.3 iVB. Buehler only had two outings this season when his iVB was remotely close to the number against the Mets. He posted a 17.8 iVB all the way back in May when he was just returning. Then, he had an 18 iVB at the final start of the regular season. There was no real sign of him maintaining it across multiple starts.

At Citi Field, there has been talk about its atmospheric conditions enhancing movement on pitches. Seemingly, every pitcher in the NLDS has experienced a boost in movement on their pitches. While it could appear on the surface that Buehler may be back to his prime form, there are contextual factors in play that must be accounted for.

Movement is up for the third straight game in Citi, for most pitchers. Talked about it on @ratesandbarrels today… some guys have *slightly* higher spin, but most have more movement. I think it’s the cold weather, maybe salt in the air; both would increase drag & movement. Maybe wind.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 18, 2024

Future Outlook

With Walker Buehler becoming a free agent at season’s end, getting through the year healthy is at minimum a positive development.  If he can build on his previous outing and continue to add to his pristine postseason numbers, he could set himself up more favorably.  Unfortunately, with the two Tommy John surgeries under his belt and overall struggles this season, his eventual payday will be far from what it was pacing to be a few years ago. An avalanche of injuries has hamstrung the Dodgers rotation. Walker Buehler has the chance to re-emerge as the guy in their World Series quest.

Main Photo Credits: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images