The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be heading for a rebuild, and if the team is going to trade away veteran players this offseason, record-setting closer Ryan Helsley is their most attractive trade piece.
Why the Cardinals Would Trade Ryan Helsley
Among the many changes the organization is going through, one is focusing on player development. Helsley is a beacon of player development success for the Cardinals. However, he is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
The Cardinals got a bargain from Helsley in 2024. The closer ended up leading the league in saves with 49, and made $3.8 million for it. That salary is projected to jump up to around $8 million in 2025 unless the two sides agree on a longer-term deal. However, such a deal would likely make that annual salary go even higher.
As part of the Cardinals’ refocus on player development, their payroll is expected to go down.
“I would anticipate seeing payroll go down because of these investments,” said Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak at the end-of-season press conference.
They’ve already reportedly decided to part ways with their most expensive player, Paul Goldschmidt. While they may explore trade options for other veterans signed for a longer term, a pay bump for Helsley may not fit in either way with what the organization is trying to do.
An extension could mean somewhere close to Josh Hader numbers. The veteran closer signed a five-year, $95 million contract with the Houston Astros last offseason. If the Cardinals aren’t willing to pay that this year or next, trading him now to a contender could fit their new plan.
What Cardinals Would Look For in Return
The Cardinals are focused on the long term. Any trade they make this offseason will be looking to bolster their farm system.
“Our baseball decisions going forward will focus on developing our pipeline of players, giving our young core every opportunity to succeed at the major league level,” said Cardinals team owner Bill Dewitt Jr. at the aforementioned press conference.
For the team to deal the 30-year-old closer, they will want a haul of prospects in return. At the trade deadline this season, the Los Angeles Angels sent Carlos Estévez to the Philadelphia Phillies. In return, the Angels got two pitching prospects: George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri. While neither of those pitchers is on the MLB Top 100 Prospects list, they are now No. 3 and No. 8, respectively, in the Angels organization.
Estévez finished the season with 26 saves in 31 opportunities and a 2.45 ERA. Helsley, on the other hand, had 49 saves in 53 opportunities and a 2.04 ERA. The two are close in age, with Estévez being just one year older. For a full season of Helsley, who by the numbers is a better pitcher than Estévez, the Cardinals would likely want another prospect or higher-ranked prospects than the return the Angels got.
What the Cardinals won’t be concerned with is whether the return will help the major league squad in 2025.
The Cardinals don’t have the luxury of spending top-tier money on a relief pitcher. All signs point to Ryan Helsley testing free agency.
It’s not worth risking a potential injury for someone who is already at a higher risk. Failing to trade him this offseason would be a mistake.
— Kareem (@KareemSSN) October 11, 2024
Ryan Helsley’s Career Year Makes Him Prime Trade Asset for Cardinals
A couple of key changes led to Helsley racking up 49 saves and setting the franchise record for saves in a single season. One was keeping him to just the ninth inning. Previously, Helsley was used in high-leverage situations late in games. That could have come as early as the seventh inning. Helsley only pitched in the ninth inning or extras in 2024. In 2023, he had more than 30 percent of his work come in the seventh or eighth inning.
Helsley also relied less on his fastball in 2024. His average fastball velocity was 99.6 miles per hour. It remained a weapon for him throughout the season. However, he tilted from it being his most used pitch to his second most used pitch in 2024.
In 2023, he threw his fastball 56.2 percent of the time and his slider 36.7 percent of the time. In 2024, he threw his slider most at 48.3 percent of the time and his fastball second at 45.5 percent. His curveball remained a pitch he threw less than 8 percent of the time in both seasons.
Helsley’s three-pitch arsenal had pitchers whiffing 36.1 percent of the time they tried to make contact this season. He stayed healthy all year. The closer appears to be in his prime and could be a featured bullpen arm on any contending team.
Photo Credit: © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
