Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres finished his 2024 season on a scorcher in the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Padres’ bats collectively went silent, leading to a series loss, Tatis still showed off his tantalizing talent. Tatis has had an up-and-down few years between injuries and a suspension. With him not reaching the peaks he showed in his first three seasons, there could be some questions about him in the long term. However, Fernando Tatis Jr. demonstrated this season and postseason that he still has the makings of an elite MLB player.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is Still Elite
Raw Power
Coming off his second wrist surgery, there have been concerns about Tatis returning to his previous power levels. In 2023, he stayed healthy after returning from his suspension and had a sub-.200 isolated slugging percentage for the first time in his career. He still hit 25 home runs, but the quality of his metrics was down from previous highs. The more modest production could be attributed to not playing for more than a year and a return from injury. However, expectations were once again sky-high entering 2024 for Tatis, with him being in the top five in betting markets for NL MVP. Much of the same level of production prolonged into 2024.
Tatis continued to produce at an above-average level with a 113 wRC+, but a far cry from the superstar we saw years ago. There were still positive takeaways, such as his hitting a ball at 116.8 MPH, which was the hardest-hit ball of his career. Furthermore, he showed an improved strikeout rate. While he had strong expected results based on his quality of contact, his numbers had not taken off yet.
Ready For Takeoff
As soon as the calendar flipped to June, Tatis began to heat up. He was piecing together all the optimal elements of his game and enjoying a nice stretch. Along with the improved strikeout rate, his contact quality was obscene at the start of the month. He was doing a good job of not chasing pitches outside the zone and elevating the ball. Here are some of his statistics in June:
| wRC+ | 198 |
| Barrel% | 17.7% |
| Hard Hit% | 61.3% |
| K% | 19.5% |
| xwOBA | .474 |
After being closer to a 30% strikeout rate with similar contact quality in previous years, Tatis is packaging together the best parts. Of course, this stretch only lasted for 87 plate appearances before Tatis suffered an injury that sidelined him for multiple months.
Postseason and Beyond
Fernando Tatis Jr. started off the Padres’ postseason with a bang in his first at-bat. This home run is one of his leading four home runs during the postseason. Tatis has always seemed like the player who rises up in these kinds of moments. Even back as a 21-year-old in the 2020 playoffs, Tatis shined on the biggest stage.
TATIS HAS SAN DIEGO ROCKING pic.twitter.com/yCqn9e2Lrw
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 2, 2024
It felt like with the suspension and multiple injuries, Tatis lost a little bit of his luster. He was on the cover of MLB The Show and the presumptive face of baseball. The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli had a fantastic piece on his adversity and down years. Tatis lit the 2024 postseason on fire with an over-300 wRC+, and looked as good as he ever has. Another incredibly encouraging signal for Tatis’ health is him setting another career high in max exit velocity with a 118.9 MPH double he hit against the Dodgers. It appears that his strength and bat speed is fully recovered and back to maximum capability.
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s double was 118.9 mph
-the 2nd-hardest-hit ball in the postseason under Statcast tracking (2015) [2022 NLCS G1 Schwarber 119.7 mph HR]
– the hardest-hit ball of Tatis’ career (incl postseason)
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 6, 2024
With his bat speed and max exit velocity being top percentile marks in baseball, there is a real shot for Tatis to have at least 40 home runs next season. Combined with his still excellent sprint speed, he will have the potential to steal 30 bases too. While he regressed a bit after leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved in 2023, he still profiles as an elite defender as well. The sky is the limit for Tatis in 2025.
Photo Credit: © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
