Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has an underrated case for the NL Cy Young Award. Since joining the Phillies before the 2020 season, Wheeler has been one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball. He has a 57-31 record and a 2.96 ERA with the Phillies, along with a 141 ERA+, a 70 ERA-, and a 2.97 FIP. Wheeler has the best fWAR and the most quality starts among qualified starting pitchers in that span. His 13.23 win probability added with the Phillies is the best among qualified starting pitchers in that stretch. Despite this, Wheeler has yet to win the NL Cy Young Award. He finished runner-up to Corbin Burnes in the 2021 NL Cy Young Award voting.
This season has been no different. Wheeler got the Opening Day start for the first time in his career. Before the season, he received a three-year contract extension. Wheeler was named an All-Star in 2024 for the second time in his career, and with a win on August 31, he reached 100 career wins. Wheeler has already matched his win total from the 2021 season and he currently has a better ERA and WHIP than in 2021. He also has a better ERA+ and ERA- than he did in that 2021 NL Cy Young runner-up campaign. However, Chris Sale is expected to win the NL Cy Young Award this season. While Sale has been excellent for the Atlanta Braves, Wheeler has a better case than most give him credit for.
Phillies Ace Zack Wheeler Has a Case for the Cy Young Award
Consistency On The Mound
This season, Wheeler has a 14-6 record with a 2.59 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 28 starts. 22 of those 28 outings have been quality starts. The 34-year-old leads the NL in that category and is tied with Logan Gilbert for the most in baseball. For comparison, this season Sale has 17 quality starts in 27 outings. 78.57% of Wheeler’s outings have been quality starts compared to 62.96% of Sale’s. Wheeler is the sole pitcher in the NL with at least 20 quality starts this season. The next closest is Logan Webb with 19. It is worth noting three of Wheeler’s six losses have been quality starts. Between those three games, the Phillies scored a combined three runs. The lack of run support has hurt some numbers for Wheeler.
The righty also leads qualified NL starting pitchers with a .191 batting average against and a 0.962 WHIP this season. Furthermore, opposing batters have a .245 BABIP against Wheeler this season, which is the best among qualified NL starting pitchers. For comparison, Sale has a .213 batting average against and a 0.996 WHIP, along with a .312 BABIP from opposing hitters. Wheeler has a better left-on-base percentage than Sale as well, and he has a 0.86 clutch rating this season compared to a -0.25 clutch rating for Sale. This measures performance in high-leverage situations compared to neutral scenarios. Other notable stats for Wheeler this season include a 5.0 bWAR, 4.6 fWAR, 157 ERA+, and a 63 ERA-.
Recent Performances
Since August 1, Wheeler has a 4-1 record with a 1.60 ERA and 51 strikeouts in seven starts, all of which were quality starts. In that stretch, he has a .184 batting average against and a 0.80 WHIP. Wheeler is tops among qualified NL starting pitchers in quality starts, WHIP, and strikeout-to-walk ratio since August 1. In August, he had a 1.62 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. Wheeler has an 85.4% left-on-base percentage since August 1 including 87.2% for the month of August. Seeing Wheeler this dominant heading into the most important stretch of the season is a good sign for the Phillies’ postseason chances. His ability to carry this into October is essential for the Phillies to make a World Series run.
Since the All-Star break, Wheeler has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.93 FIP in nine outings, along with a 5.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.89 WHIP in that span. Additionally, Wheeler has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, and strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second half than he did in the first half. He has a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 5.0% walk rate in the second half. Meanwhile, in the first half, he had a 27.0% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate. Wheeler has an 82.6% left-on-base percentage in the second half compared to 78.1% before the All-Star break.
The Phillies ace has an NL Cy Young Award case. Wheeler should be given serious consideration by the BBWAA voters for the award.
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