Coming off winning the 2023 American League Cy Young Award, 33-year-old Gerrit Cole was expected to be the anchor of the Yankees’ rotation this season. But this has not been the case. Instead, rookie Luis Gil has shone as the Yankees’ breakout starter. Ironically, Gil was given a shot in the rotation due to an injury that Cole sustained in March, and he ran with it. Until June, he was arguably a favorite in the Cy Young conversation; and though he has cooled off, he’s still been plenty solid.
Though pretty much out of the running for the Cy Young, Gil still has a legitimate shot at winning AL Rookie of the Year. And not only has he been a pleasant surprise, but he’s also been New York’s most reliable pitcher in 2024.
Luis Gil’s Breakout Season
More Than a Rookie
In terms of competition, the race for AL Rookie of the Year has essentially come down to three players. In addition to Gil, there is Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser and fellow Yankee Austin Wells. Thus far, Cowser appears to be the clear-cut favorite. Batting .247/.325/.447 with 18 homers and excellent fielding, the award is Cowser’s to lose at the moment.
Though Gil may not have the ending necessary to catch up, his rookie year has proven to be worth more to the Yankees than any award. The 26-year-old’s ERA of 3.25 is the lowest of the four Yankee starters with at least 120 innings, and his 3.1 brWAR is more than double that of second-place Nestor Cortes (1.4). He also has 12 wins, second on the team to Carlos Rodon‘s 13.
Gil’s numbers are not crazy by any means, but he has been invaluable as a solid starter in a season where starting pitching has been heavily lacking for New York.
But Can He Pull It Off?
Just because Gil doesn’t need to win ROY to prove his value doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be nice, right? If he can finish August strongly and put together a great September, it just may be in the cards.
Let’s look at May, by far the righty’s most impressive month. He pitched 38 2/3 innings, striking out 44, while also posting a 0.70 ERA and a 6-0 record. This insane stretch culminated in him winning the AL Pitcher of the Month for May. The likelihood of this happening again isn’t high, so let’s look at his second-best month, which is July.
After a rough June, Gil had a bounce-back month, especially because of how badly New York struggled as a team. In five starts, Gil put up a 3.33 ERA, pitching 27 innings and striking out 33. He also limited his walks (by far his biggest problem), only issuing eight free passes. It’s pretty realistic to suggest that Gil could put up similar numbers to these further down the stretch, especially considering the lack of big offenses in the Yankees’ remaining schedule.
Luis Gil, Wicked 89mph Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/O3RN65r9kF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 13, 2024
But even if Gil ends his season better than Cowser, he still has to worry about his own catcher. According to Fangraphs, Gil (2.4 fWAR) is slightly behind both Cowser and Austin Wells. Those two are tied with an fWAR of 3.0.
Wells, who’s appeared in just 84 games, has sprung himself into the ROY conversation from out of nowhere. The Yankees’ starting catcher is already one of the better defensive catchers in the league and has been on a multi-month hitting tear that has shot him into the conversation for top catchers in the AL.
But regardless, Cowser is still the odds-on favorite. There is always the possibility that Gil has another monster month. However, it seems unlikely simply because it looks like hitters are finally catching up to him.
The Last Word on Gil
In a season where the rotation has been the Yankees’ biggest obstacle, Luis Gil’s breakout has made him the guy who most consistently gives them a chance to win. Sure, he likely won’t be who takes the mound in Game 1 of the postseason. But he has proven that when he is able to harness his command and limit the walks, his stuff makes him one of the nastiest starters in baseball.
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