The Pittsburgh Pirates are a rare team with an abundance of riches when it comes to starting pitchers. Presently, the rotation consists of Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Luis Ortiz, Martín Pérez, and Marco Gonzales. Jared Jones and Bailey Falter are on the injured list. Lurking in the bullpen is Quinn Priester. When Jones and Falter come off the IL, the Pirates will have a dilemma that should be the envy of every team in baseball. Let’s speculate how it might be resolved.
Pirates Have a Nice Problem with 8 Starting Pitchers
When the Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman for the 2024 season, it looked like they’d created a lockdown bullpen to cover up weaknesses in their starting rotation. It was the opposite that happened. The starting pitching is a strength and the bullpen has been inconsistent. The Pirates entered the All-Star break with a team 3.86 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. Considering just the starters (and excluding starts by an “opener”), Pirates starting pitchers have a 3.58 ERA and 1.233 WHIP. Now for a brief look at each starter.
The $77 Million Man
Skenes gets the attention, but it’s Keller, who signed a big contract extension this spring, who’s the staff leader. Keller is 10-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.251 WHIP. Arguably, Keller should have been at the All-Star Game with Skenes. His streak of 49 consecutive starts pitching at least five innings was the longest active streak in the majors. It was interrupted last Sunday by manager Derek Shelton’s plan to remove him after three innings so that Priester could get in some pre-break work. Since ironing out some issues in the bullpen in 2022, Keller has been one of the best starters in baseball. Only an injury could bump him from the rotation.
The Rookie Sensations
If you don’t know about Skenes, you may have been looking for a different site. He started the All-Star Game just one year after being drafted. Skenes has been the best of the Pirates starting pitchers, if not the best in baseball. He’s 6-0 and has pitched well enough to be 11-0 in his 11 starts. His stats are mind-boggling: 1.90 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, 6.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 34.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.1 percent walk rate. His ERA+ is 216, which I thought was impossible; it means he’s 116 percent better than the MLB average. He and Livvy Dunne have become to baseball what Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift are to football. If Shelton removes him from the rotation, the protest at PNC Park will make the Boston Tea Party look like . . . well, a tea party.
Then there’s Jones, who grabbed all the headlines early in the season and has since pitched in Skenes’s shadow. He was the fourth pitcher, and the first since 1983, to strike out seven in his first five career games. He’s 5-6 with a 3.56 ERA. Like most of the Pirates starting pitchers, his record isn’t better because of a lack of support from the offense, defense, and bullpen. His ERA+ is 115 and his WHIP is 1.110. When he gets off the IL, his spot in the rotation will be waiting for him.
Shelton may occasionally skip these rookies’ turns from time to time to preserve their arms. Whether that actually does any good is anybody’s guess. Jones went on the IL in his next start after being skipped.
The Surprising Lefty
After becoming a surprise addition to the rotation and pitching well, in his last five games, Falter has surrendered 13 earned runs in 22 innings. On June 24 in Cincinnati, Falter pitched three perfect innings before giving up five runs in the fourth inning. Strangely, he blamed tiredness. He went on the IL two starts later. His 90 1/3 innings pitched are the most he’s ever pitched in the majors, though far from his high when the minor leagues are considered. Yet, Shelton may relegate him to bullpen duty when he returns. This old-school writer thinks that’s nonsense, but what I think won’t matter. Then again, Falter claimed to be tired and currently isn’t one of the best starting pitchers on the Pirates.
The Veteran Lefties
Gonzales recently returned from a long stint on the IL and continued where he left off. The sample size is too small to get into an analysis of his stats. However, he’s crafty and moves the ball around, making him the type of pitcher who usually excels late in the season. The feeling here is that he needs to stay in the rotation.
On the other hand, Pérez has been hit-and-miss. Overall, the picture isn’t inspiring: a 1-5 record, 5.15 ERA, 1.623 WHIP, 79 ERA+, and -.01 WAR. He has major league experience in the bullpen, where he’ll probably find himself unless traded. He wouldn’t fetch much on the trade market, but the Pirates could shed his salary and make room for more additions.
The Rest
Ortiz is the guy who’s complicating things, in a good way. After some successful multi-inning relief performances in bullpen games, he was given some starts. To push him out of the rotation now would be a grave injustice. In his three starts, he’s pitched 17 2/3 innings and surrendered just two runs. He struck out 17 and walked one in those games. Ultimately, when all are healthy, the prediction here is Keller, Skenes, Jones, Gonzales, and Ortiz will comprise the rotation.
Luis Ortiz this afternoon:
5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO
94 pitches, 64 strikes, 9 whiffsHe now has a 2.84 ERA this season pic.twitter.com/Oz0J7XJeQl
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) July 13, 2024
Poor Priester. When a guy still has minor-league options, he’s often the odd man out. His last two performances were good, but likely not enough to save him from the bullpen or another trip to Triple-A Indianapolis.
Photo Credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
