The New York Mets enter 2024 with lower expectations than they had in recent years. While the team lacks the star power of 2022 and 2023, the front office acquired several high-upside players this offseason. These new Mets are variables with high ceilings and low floors that will determine the team’s fate.
The current core consists of established veterans. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil have multiple solid seasons and don’t represent major question marks. However, the Mets, as a whole, must perform above their means to make the playoffs. This means they, the coreThe a will need help from their teammates.
This is where the volatile new additions will have to make their impact. Evaluators are split on whether the Mets will win around 75, 84, or 90 games. There is no consensus on whether the Mets will be a bad, mediocre, or pretty decent squad next year. A big part of that is due to the nature of the guys David Stearns brought in.
ICYMI https://t.co/pLLKQH15gb The NL projects as basically three tiers and the Mets are in the jumble in the middle trying to figure their way out to the playoffs.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) March 3, 2024
In his first offseason as Mets president of baseball operations, Stearns supplemented the core with many players with high potential and past seasons of great performance. However, they also have a record of injuries, inconsistencies, and awful results. These new Mets are variables whose performance will determine whether the team sells at the deadline or enters the MLB postseason crapshoot.
The New Mets That Are Variables In The Fate Of The Season
Luis Severino
Luis Severino provided the New York Yankees with several years of ace production. He also spent just as much time on the injured list with a variety of ailments. Last season, he was both uncharacteristically ineffective and predictably injured.
In 89.1 innings, Severino produced a 6.65 ERA (65 ERA+) with a career-worst strikeout percentage. Perhaps injuries caught up to the 30-year-old. Or, perhaps Severino was tipping his pitches. Mo people, including Severino, are convinced it was the latter.
Was Luis Severino tipping pitches in 2023? @enosarris of @theathletic says it's possible, and that his velocity was actually UP last season – despite his 6.65 ERA
▶️ https://t.co/e6nqCrj8LR pic.twitter.com/zoPS8WSX1F
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 8, 2024
Severino still threw harder than most and maintained career-norm velocity. If injuries or age had caught up to him, one would expect a decline in his pitches, which was not present.
According to reports, hitters knew when the fastball was coming. Considering he threw his two best pitches, his slider, and four-seam fastball, 64 percent of the time, hitters had a useful advantage. Pitchers have the power to play mind games with hitters by being unpredictable with their pitch mix. That advantage is lost when hitters know what is coming.
Many expect a change of scenery and new eyes and voices to benefit Severino. Plus, he worked with Driveline in the winter and made minor delivery tweaks that could help his tipping issues. If so, the Mets will have an ace atop their rotation with a great offensive core and a solid back end of the bullpen.
The Mets currently project as a middle-of-the-pack squad with postseason hopes dependent on slim margins. A similar team won 84 games last year and made it to the World Series. Severino’s production to his potential can push the Mets above 84 wins, likely into the playoffs. However, the Mets don’t have the pieces to overcome a 2023 version of Severino, which will likely sink the team to 80 or fewer victories.
Harrison Bader
Among the new Mets serving as variables in 2024, Harrison Bader offers the most consistency in some respects. Bader will surely provide elite, game-changing defense in center field, but it comes with a track record of poor offense and frequent injuries.
Manager Carlos Mendoza revealed that Bader will player center field almost every day, a move that undoubtedly improves New York’s defense. Since 2017, Bader leads all outfielders with 66 Outs Above Average, even with all the time he has missed. Bader has never played more than 138 games in a season, and only appeared in 100 or more in just three of six full campaigns. Imagine how many OAA he’d have if he could stay healthy?
"Haven't felt that good in a long time"
Harrison Bader says he felt "really good" after playing today: pic.twitter.com/EhWCXExNql
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 5, 2024
The Mets and Bader both have expressed optimism regarding his health in 2024. A medley of ailments impacted Bader last season, and he underwent sports hernia surgery in late September. He emphasized conditioning in his offseason training and says he feels great so far in camp. If he can stay healthy, he will provide immense value just in run prevention.
Anything close to average offensive production will make Bader’s deal a steal. He is a career .243/.310/.396 (92 OPS+) hitter, though his numbers are much better against lefties. In 523 career plate appearances against southpaws, Bader has a slash line of .262/.331/.494. An .824 OPS with elite center field defense is All-Star caliber production.
It seems that the Mets are set to play Bader every day except against tough righties. With this type of role, Bader can save the Mets several losses over the course of a season where the team’s playoff hopes might depend on every win. Bader is a new Mets variable because he can greatly alter the team’s season, but his health and offense are such big question marks.
Jorge López
The back of the Mets bullpen might be one of the best in the league. While Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, and Brooks Raley should lock down innings 7-9, the middle innings are not as secure.
This winter, Stearns gambled on several relievers with high potential but poor recent results. If the Mets can get the best out of a couple of these arms, the bullpen might be the best in the league. If not, the Mets could lose many before the aforementioned trio even get a chance to pitch, especially if the rotation struggles.
What is the difference between Jorge Lopez, All-Star, and Jorge Lopez, 5.95 ERA?
I asked Lopez, plus Lindor and Wendle, who have faced him most. Plus why he's emotionally equipped to bounce back from baseball adversity. Huge player for Mets this year.https://t.co/fMuOo5Yoxi
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) February 25, 2024
This variability is best encapsulated by Jorge López. In 2022, López was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He made his lone All-Star team and produced a 2.54 ERA (155 ERA+) with solid strikeout rates in 71 innings.
However, his follow up season was an utter disaster. Split between the Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, and Baltimore Orioles, López performed to a 5.95 ERA and saw his strikeout rate plummet.
Despite the poor results, López continued to throw hard, miss barrels, and generate ground balls. Additionally, some believe that serious off-field matters (his son’s health) significantly impacted López’s performance.
López is a tantalizing Mets variable. Reports say team officials have been impressed by the quality and quantity of López’s repertoire. Good relievers typically need just two above-average pitches. López throws five, all of which were various levels of above-average in 2022. If the Mets can help him regain his prime performance, he will lock up the sixth inning while providing insurance for the veteran back-end relievers.
The Mets must play above their means to make the playoffs. While great closer are flashy, solid middle relief elevates a squad. In the middle innings, López will either shorten games or add fuel to fires.
Main Photo Credits: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
