Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington should offer to trade for the Cleveland Guardians’ first baseman Josh Naylor. With room to increase payroll, Cherington has reportedly been working hard to acquire another starting pitcher but to no avail. He may have to turn his attention elsewhere to improve the team.
Naylor, 26, came up with the San Diego Padres in 2019. He was used primarily as an outfielder with the Padres. On August 31, 2020, he was traded to Cleveland in a star-for-prospects trade that netted San Diego Mike Clevinger. When Cleveland began using Naylor almost exclusively at first base in 2022, the left-handed hitter began to flourish. That year, he hit .256/.319/.452, 20 home runs and 79 RBI. In 2023, he improved his batting average and OBP without sacrificing power, hitting .308/.354/.489, 17 home runs and 97 RBI. At first base, he’s rated a plus defender, worth 10 Fielding Runs Above Average for his career.
Naylor is Not Long for the Guardians
Why would the Guardians trade a young, all-around first baseman who placed 22nd in voting for American League MVP last year to the Pirates (or anybody)? For one thing, Naylor is signed for $6.5 million for 2024. He is eligible for free agency and a bigger payday likely beyond the Guardians’ means after 2025. The Guardians brain trust believes it has a comparable replacement in Kyle Manzardo, 23, who hit .237/.337/.464 for three minor league teams last season. The Guardians do have a history of extending contracts of promising young players. However, they usually don’t wait until the player is as close to free agency as Naylor.
Asked about a possible extension he went on to praise the city of Cleveland and say he loves his teammates and his coaches. But all the players say that about the city and the team where they play. They seldom take a discount to stay there when free agency is impending. Trading Naylor is the more likely outcome. Whether that happens now or at the trade deadline (or even next year’s trade deadline) remains to be seen.
A Pirates Trade Makes Sense
Why the Pirates? They’re rumored to be one of the teams who have already inquired about Naylor, so it’s not a far-fetched notion. PNC Park’s short right field is tailor-made for Naylor, who pulls the ball 33.2 percent of the time. Consider, too, his low strikeout rate (16.5 percent for his career, 13.7 last year) and he’s the type of hitter the Pirates crave.
The Pirates need a first baseman who is a long-term solution, and Naylor could be the best one available in their price range by trade or free agency. Mason Martin, 24, once considered a top prospect, is seldom mentioned as the first baseman of the future any longer. By all accounts a hard worker, over six minor league seasons he’s hit .234/.336/.468, 122 HR and 418 RBI. But an unacceptable 38.7 percent of his at-bats have ended with strikeouts. Malcom Nunez, 22, has been groomed to step in at first base but maybe a couple of years away. In any event, for his five-year minor league career, he’s batting .274/.362/.449, 55 HR and 249 RBI. Nunez doesn’t appear to be the caliber player who should stand in Naylor’s way.
The Pirates did sign Rowdy Tellez for $3.2 million to play first base this season. However, they could still upgrade first base, even with Tellez on the team. Naylor’s presence would move Tellez to the designated hitter spot, making the Pirates much stronger defensively. It would also bump Tellez down to a lower spot in the batting order. There Tellez wouldn’t clog up the bases as much with his lack of speed or kill as many rallies with his sub-par batting average and OBP, while the Pirates could still avail themselves of his left-handed power bat.
Navigating a Slippery Slope
Then there’s the matter of Naylor’s contract. Naylor’s $6.5 million salary is a bit less than the $6.75 million they signed Carlos Santana for in 2023, so one would think it’s not an obstacle. The Pirates have already exceeded last year’s payroll, but it appears Cherington has room to increase it even more. Owner Bob Nutting told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Ben has room to make moves that we need to make,” without getting into just how much room he has. Nutting went on to say, “We need to make the team better now and make sure that we’re not mortgaging the future going forward, that we’re not making decisions where we’re giving up so much talent in a trade that we end up watching former pitchers thrive elsewhere.”
Nutting is still spooked by the disastrous 2018 trade of Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer. So, while Cherington may have the money to spend, there may also be tight restrictions on what he can surrender. On the other hand, to get Naylor, he likely must put together a nice package of prospects that surpasses what other teams offer. Then, of course, there would be the matter of signing Naylor to a long-term extension. It’s a slippery slope upon which the Pirates general manager walks.
What a Trade Could Look Like
So, what might it take? The Guardians could use an impact bat, another starter or two, and more bullpen help. But that’s true of most of the 30 major league teams. The Pirates now have depth in the bullpen with the addition of Aroldis Chapman. However, indications are that they aren’t going to part with any of that depth. They may not have to.
With Amed Rosario having departed for free agency, the Guardians have a gaping hole at shortstop. Currently, the heir apparent is Gabriel Arias but there are questions about whether his bat is ready for prime time. The Guardians are also excited about a couple of shortstops in their system, Brayan Rocchio, their top-rated prospect, and Juan Brito, ranked sixth. Both are said to need more time in the minors. Thus, it might take a package of prospects along with somebody from the Pirates’ glut of major-league-ready middle infielders to pull off a trade for this first baseman.
The Last Word
Trade proposals by writers don’t often materialize and are probably scoffed at by baseball people. In any case, however, it can get done, Naylor looks to be a perfect fit for the Pirates. Nutting and Cherington claim they’re doing business differently henceforth. Bringing Naylor to Pittsburgh would do much toward appeasing a jaded fan base while improving the product significantly.
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