The New York Yankees came into the 2023 season with high expectations. Per FanGraphs, their projection was to perform well and win the AL East division. Multiple reputable people around the game had them as AL East favorites, but they fell significantly short. However, when one takes a closer look at the season and the previous 200 games a picture begins to emerge. The Yankees have actually been roughly a .500 team for a while. So, did the Yankees hitters underperform their projections or did they actually do what was expected of them?
Yankees Hitters’ Performance Relative to Projections
Part 1
Aaron Judge was expected to have another great season, according to ZIPS projections. The system believed he would hit 46 home runs and have a .280 batting average with an 8 WAR. In fact, he outperformed those projections, as those numbers were predicted over a full season of work. Judge only played two-thirds of the 2023 campaign, but had he played the full season, his overall home run numbers would have been around 55-57. He did all this despite missing time with a significant toe injury, so he exceeded what was projected of him.
DJ LeMahieu was projected to have a .273 batting average along with 12 home runs and a 4.1 WAR. He significantly underperformed, as he only hit .243 with a 1.3 WAR, but he did hit 15 home runs. The turning point in his season was when Sean Casey took over as the team’s hitting coach. LeMahieu started hitting the ball with more authority and had a resurgence, but it was too little, too late. He was projected to be the Yankees’ second-best position player by WAR, but he finished ninth in that category.
Anthony Volpe was projected to be the Yankees’ third-best player according to WAR with 3.5. In his rookie year, Volpe only finished .2 behind that projection and finished fourth on the team’s WAR chart. He underperformed in batting average, as he was expected to hit .234 but only hit .209. However, he exceeded his power expectations, hitting 21 home runs instead of 17. Overall, Volpe was close to his projections but could have exceeded them if he had avoided an early season slump.
Part 2
Another player who hovered right around his preseason projections was Gleyber Torres. He was expected to be a 3.2 WAR player with a .259 batting average and 22 home runs. Ultimately, he hit .273 with 25 home runs and a 2.9 WAR. Like LeMahieu, he significantly improved with the arrival of Sean Casey as the hitting coach. Torres has become a solid second baseman, but he could potentially moved as a trade piece for another player due to his consistent offensive production.
Anthony Rizzo is difficult to judge because he was significantly outperforming his projections prior to his late concussion diagnosis. His projections had him batting .236 with 23 home runs and a 2.4 WAR. Prior to his injury in late May, Rizzo was batting upwards of .300 and seemed poised to eclipse the 23-homer mark. He ultimately collapsed because of an undiagnosed concussion, and he finished with a .244 average, 12 home runs, and a 0.5 WAR. So the question remains what would have happened if Rizzo hadn’t been injured? Unfortunately, we’ll never know.
Giancarlo Stanton was the biggest disappointment in the Yankees lineup this season, as he failed to have a strong comeback season following an injury-ridden 2022 campaign. He was projected to bat .241, hit 30 home runs, and have a 2.0 WAR. Stanton finished the year batting .191 with 24 home runs and a -0.8 WAR. This was another injury-filled year for Big G, but even prior to his injuries, Stanton wasn’t playing up to his projections.
Giancarlo Stanton was very bad this season and showed serious decline in several key areas. I dove deep into the numbers and spoke with @DrivelineBB’s @Tstokey to see what can improve. Some interesting stuff below, including Driveline’s grades on him. https://t.co/Ydl5P44yQ8
— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) October 24, 2023
Wrapping Up
Several other Yankees hitters also didn’t live up to projections. Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson struggled to the point that the Yankees cut ties with both of them. The kids, excluding Jasson Dominguez, also underperformed when called up, but they get a break for 2023, as it was their first taste of Major League Baseball. The underperforming lineup was the common theme in 2023, and if 2024 is going to be better, the lineup needs to regain its consistency.
Photo Credit: © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
