With only two games separating four teams in the National League Wild-Card race, let’s look at the transactions that will decide who gets in. Prior to games beginning on Wednesday, the Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Francisco Giants all sit in striking distance of the third wild-card spot, in that order. The Reds hold the spot by a half game over Miami. With the NL playoff picture being so close, small decisions will be what separates one club from the other three.
Some rules for this list: there’s no double jeopardy, so only one move by each team will be included. The moves are not limited to the 2023 trade deadline, either. Last offseason and in-season injury moves are eligible to be included as well. The list goes by order of the standings. Each of these four moves will play a role in settling the NL playoff picture, determining who gets the final spot in October.
Reds Pitchers On the Shelf
The Reds hold the final wild-card spot before Wednesday’s games. They’ve arrived in contention ahead of schedule, as young players have established themselves as quality big-league regulars through the summer. However, the major weakness of this team has always been starting pitching. Last Friday, that weakness became much more pronounced. Four pitchers (starters Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Ben Lively, reliever Fernando Cruz) were placed on the COVID-19 injured list. In addition, starter Graham Ashcraft was placed on the injured list with a right big toe stress reaction. Reds starters are 28th in the league this year in ERA (5.27). Losing four starters to an already depleted staff could prove to be a killer down the stretch, and the Reds offense will likely have to score more runs to compensate.
Marlins Trade for Burger
We’ll take one Burger to go, please. pic.twitter.com/EaIUZXHfDD
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) September 5, 2023
At the trade deadline, the Marlins needed offense. As a surprise contender this season, Miami needed to improve the league’s 21st-ranked offense by WRC+ to stay in the NL playoff picture. A deal was struck for third baseman Jake Burger, who immediately starred in his new uniform. In 30 games as a Marlin, Burger is hitting .322 with six home runs. Though the team’s offense has put up identical numbers following Burger’s addition (21st-ranked 92 WRC+), the Marlins have won five in a row. They’re hot at the right time. If the Marlins are going to push into the playoffs, Burger will need to be a feature of a much more potent offense in the future. He’s held up his end of the bargain thus far, and it will need to continue to vault his team into October.
Quiet Deadline in the Desert
The Diamondbacks have had the same problem all year: pitching. They had a chance to address the issue at the trade deadline. Unfortunately for Arizona, the only addition was closer Paul Sewald. However, it was a necessary move, more than Sewald was needed to allow the Diamondbacks to pull away in the NL playoff picture. The Diamondbacks need starting pitching more than ever. In the last two weeks, the rotation has a 5.46 ERA. With a full game between them and the Reds, they will need a better effort from their process to make it to October. Otherwise, the lack of activity at the deadline will be why they sit excluded from the postseason.
Free-Agent Luck Running Out
Over the past few years, the Giants have kept afloat in contention with a particular strategy. They identify bounce-back candidates to sign for short-term deals and maximize their production. It just has yet to work this season. Pitchers Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling have ERAs of around 5. More glaring, though, have been the position players. Outfielders Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto were signed to add depth and power to the lineup, and they have yet to be successful. Haniger has played just 46 games and has been a below-average hitter by a wide margin. Conforto is just above the league-average mark but has not returned to his pre-injury form. Ultimately, the Giants have no choice but to hope for a turnaround from all their players. The league’s second-worst offense (since July 1st) will need to turn around to carve a place in the NL playoff picture.
Main Photo Credits: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
