Adding the right waiver wire prospect at a key time early in the season game-changed many fantasy managers’ teams this season. Many prospects also game-changed real major league teams. One such team, the Cincinnati Reds, now finds themselves in an unlikely playoff hunt with an all-rookie infield.
It might have been George Romero who said, “When Hell is full, MLB prospects will flood the Show.” That might be loosely paraphrased. Nevertheless, Hell must have risen to capacity much earlier this season. Major league teams went against previous norms and flooded the league with prospects well ahead of the All-Star Game.
September has traditionally been when major league teams look to inject young blood. This September, candidates to be a waiver wire prospect are slim, yet noteworthy.
Waiver Wire Prospects For Fantasy Baseball: Week 22
Waiver Wire Prospect #1: Ceddanne Rafaela
The Boston Red Sox have engaged a puzzling approach to their late-season prospect usage. Perhaps there’s some secret formula in calculating service time and 2024 Rookie of the Year eligibility that explains it all?
Whatever the case, the Red Sox have needed both a shortstop and center fielder for a hot minute now. Ceddanne Rafaela is a heralded prospect who’s defensively adept at both positions. Instead of promoting Rafaela, the team chose unheralded prospect Wilyer Abreu to fill the need when Jarren Duran went down with an injury. An expecting father, Abreu promptly went on the paternity list after sizzling in his debut, but now has been relegated to a bench role. Rafaela also could have filled a need at shortstop at any point this season, while Trevor Story was on the injured list.
The Red Sox chose a traditional September call-up for defensive wiz Rafaela. He’s played both shortstop and center field. Over eight plate appearances, he’s hitting .375 and displaying promising exit velocities. The 22-year-old Rafaela has made strides in cutting down his strikeout rate in the past season-plus. His power grades fall in the average realm of the spectrum, but FanGraphs scouts his speed as a spectacular 60. Those wheels have been on display in the minors, as Rafaela has stolen 36 bases across two levels in 2023. He’s also launched 20 home runs, so the 50-grade Future Power might be arriving early.
FanGraphs has him as the 33rd overall prospect and third in the Red Sox system. Rafaela should be a keeper priority for next season. When considering free agents for September playoff runs, the toolsy, multi-positional eligible player should be scooped up as a waiver wire prospect where available.
Prospects #2 + 2 1/2: Brett Baty + Ronny Mauricio
Where the Cincinnati Reds seem to have unlocked success in employing their prospect talent, the New York Mets have done the opposite. Opting for a half-measure approach, the Mets recalled a couple of their top prospects, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, early in the season. However, aging veterans like Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Daniel Vogelbach received priority playing time.
Baty and Vientos were shuffled back and forth in the minor leagues, while rumors circulated that another top prospect, Ronny Mauricio, would get an early call. Instead, the Mets let their season flounder and as a result, their prospects will be deliciously undervalued going into next year’s fantasy season.
Brett Baty, in particular, should be an excellent buy-low in keeper leagues and 2024 redrafts. In the present moment, he and Mauricio could potentially help fantasy managers. Baty possesses supreme Raw Power, graded at 70 by FanGraphs. His Max Exit Velocity of 113.7 proves this out and indicates a potential 35 to 40-homer player.
The thing is, peripheral indicators suggest Baty hasn’t fundamentally been a poor hitter, as many of the surface stats would indicate. His eye at the plate seems selective, with an Outside Swing rate below 30%. Admittedly, his 71% Contact rate isn’t outstanding, but it falls within the acceptable range of someone with elite power. Where Baty could improve is his Launch Angle, which isn’t ideal for generating flyballs necessary to tap into his raw power. Said power has been on full display in the minor leagues. Arguably, consistent playing time should allow this talented hitter to grow into one of the league’s top power performers.
Prospect #3: Jasson Domínguez
If the Red Sox went against the grain by waiting until September to promote a prospect who could fill a need, their longtime rival the New York Yankees took a cue from the same crusty playbook. The Yanks waited out almost a full brutal season to promote their number two prospect, Jasson Dominguez.
“The Martian” fared decently over 109 games at Double-A, netting a slash line of .254./367/.414, while flashing tremendous speed in stealing 37 bags. When his promotion to Triple-A came, it was perhaps a procedural move to tick some key performance indicator boxes, as he only spent nine games there. Over 37 plate appearances, he tore the cover off the ball at a .419 clip.
Now that he’s up with the Bronx Bombers, Domínguez has already launched his first two bombs in three games. Batting third in a lineup that’s desperately needed offense all season, the Yankees and fantasy managers at least get a month to see a sneak preview of the Martian’s tools.
Last night, Jasson Domínguez joined Aaron Judge, Joe Lefebvrem and Yogi Berra as the only Yankees to hit two HR in their first three MLB games. #YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/kcMiAqht5V
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 4, 2023
Hitting for power and stealing bases is what fantasy managers care about when speculating on unproven waiver wire prospects. Domínguez carries these abilities in spades. He should be a target for dynasty/keeper leagues and anyone who needs a hitting boost in September.
Prospect #4: Davis Schneider
At almost 25 years old, the Toronto Blue Jays‘ Davis Schneider barely makes the age cutoff to be a prospect. As a career Blue Jays minor leaguer since 2017, he’s never been valued as a highly regarded prospect.
This lack of accolades means nothing against the robust production Schneider has put up since being implemented as an injury fill-in for the Jays. His otherworldly play over 67 plate appearances spanning 16 games has resulted in a .407 batting average with a .522 OBP, to go along with bonkers power indicators of a .463 ISO and an .870 slugging percentage. Whether this is a flash in the pan or not, Schneider’s six home runs may have heretofore only helped a small percentage of fantasy managers. The Blue Jays, though, seem poised to let Schneider’s hot bat run in September, as injuries continue to mount.
Peering under the hood, Schneider’s performance indicators paint a portrait of a player maximizing his power potential. His Outside Swing rate is superlative at 20%, so he’s looking to do damage on pitches in the zone. Though his exit velocities don’t scream power, his 28 Launch Angle optimizes when he makes contact. This has resulted in an elite 18% Barrel rate. Expected stats are virtually negligible at this point. Performance is what matters for fantasy managers. Schneider may be a flash in the pan ultimately, but use him now, while the pan is smoking hot.
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Prospect #5: Mason Miller
Shortly after he became part of the early season minor league deluge, things were looking bleak for stud starting pitching prospect Mason Miller. He debuted for the Oakland Athletics on April 19 against the Chicago Cubs and then made three more starts before landing on the injured list with a sprained UCL. It was touch-and-go as to whether Miller might need surgery. However, he and the Athletics chose the rehab route. This choice has led to Miller looking to complete a minor league rehab stint in the coming days.
Miller pumps 100 mph fastballs, which has become ridiculously frequent in the game. Miller’s fastball, though, sets itself apart by movement and shape, grading out as one of the top fastballs in the game with a 132 Stuff+. Miller complements his special heater with a couple of above-average offspeed pitches. His cutter and slider rate as 115 and 116 Stuff+ respectively. His overall 123 Stuff+ indicates Miller has some of the best stuff in baseball. Now, he and the A’s have to figure out a way to keep him on the mound.
Miller is the sole name on this list not currently in the majors. But that is all but certain to change relatively soon. He’s been on a four-day routine in the minors, only going three innings at a time. So, it remains to be seen how he will be utilized. Miller is light on innings from past seasons. It’s imperative then that the A’s stretch him out as much as possible in preparation for next year’s rebuild. Once he is inevitably recalled as an unconventional September call-up, his strikeout upside could be a difference-maker in leagues this final month.
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
