Ten weeks ago, 24-year-old lefty Andrew Abbott was down in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The Double-A affiliate for the Cincinnati Reds, seen Abbott make just three starts with the team before getting called up. In those three starts Abbott was dominate. His next stop was Triple-A Louisville. During his time in Triple-A, Abbott seemed to grow as a pitcher. Figuring out how to pitch with a different style ball, along with facing competition closer to the big leagues. Abbott proved to the Reds he was ready for the big stage. On June 5, that came to fruition. It took just two months for Abbott to speed through Double-A and Triple-A to get to the big leagues. And since being in a Reds uniform, Andrew Abbott hasn’t skipped a beat.
Andrew Abbott And His Impressive Production With the Reds
Andrew Abbott’s big league career is just six games old. Surely that isn’t much of a sample size. But nonetheless, it’s a sample size to use. If Abbott’s minor league career is any indication of what to expect, the production will continue to grow. In his latest start Sunday vs the San Diego Padres, Abbott turned in his best start yet. Needing just one out to complete eight innings, Ha-Seong Kim hit a solo home run which ended Abbott’s day. He went 7.2 innings pitched, allowing four hits, one walk, 12 strikeouts and allowing just the lone run in the eighth. 12 strikeouts in a game set a new career high for Abbott. He has been able to find the strikeout pitch more and more over his last few starts. Through his last three starts, the lefty has tallied eight, ten, and twelve strikeout games. While racking up the strikeouts, Abbott is also making history. Andrew Abbott became the first pitcher since 1900 to record 40 strikeouts while allowing five or fewer runs in his first six starts.
Is Andrew Abbott’s Early Success Sustainable?
Taking a glance at Abbott’s stat line so far this season, and it is eye popping. 4-0 record through 37 innings. a 1.29 ERA while posting a 29 percent strikeout rate. So can that be expected to keep up? There’s no denying Andrew Abbott is an above average pitcher for the Reds. For a rotation that has been broken and battered all year, Abbott has provided a sense of relief in his short time with the team. However, a quick look into his expected numbers, and it might just show some regression is in the future for the young 24-year-old. How much of a regression? Let’s take a look.
Andrew Abbott's 5th and 6th Ks.
Thru 4. pic.twitter.com/uhzveKnVgT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 2, 2023
As mentioned above, Abbott is holding a 1.29 ERA. his expected earned run average though, a bit higher at 2.70. Where Abbott’s advanced numbers show a bit of luck on his side, starts with his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP. FIP and ERA are are both read the same. The lower the number, the better for the pitcher. The difference, FIP measures a pitchers performance based on events he can control. Those events being, home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts. Abbott’s FIP is at a 3.48 compared to his 1.29 ERA. His expected FIP (xFIP) shows a bit higher than that at 4.27. Andrew Abbott has also benefited from having an extremely low BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His BABIP through his first six starts is just .190. For reference, it is said to be a BABIP of .300 is about league average. For Abbott having as low of a BABIP as he does, it is clear to see he has definitely had some luck on his side.
Final Thoughts:
Make no mistake about it, Abbott has had an incredible start to his big league career. In a position of the team that has struggled, and be running thin, Abbott has helped significantly. His numbers have been good, if not great. But his numbers also show some regression should be expected. That’s not a knock on Andrew Abbott, more so a tip of the hat to just how good he has preformed to this point. It isn’t fair to expect a 24-year-old to compete at this high of a level for the entire year. Until that regression happens, let’s continue to enjoy watching the University of Virginia alum pitch extremely well for the Cincinnati Reds. This is a fun year, and a fun time for Reds country. Every time Abbott steps on the bump, the fun takes another step forward.
Players Mentioned: Andrew Abbott, Ha-Seong Kim
Main Photo Credit: David Kohl-USA Today Sports
