Justin Turner enters the free agent market as one of the oldest players available. That said, he proved last season that there is still life in his bat. Plus, he comes with a reputation as a great clubhouse leader who elevates his teammates.
Modern front offices don’t like older players, but it’s clear that Turner still provides positive value for a contending team. His market and earning potential could be limited due to his age and limited defensive ability, but Turner expects to generate decent interest as a free agent this winter.
Justin Turner Free Agent Profile
Last offseason, Turner and J.D. Martinez represented two free agent sluggers close to 40 coming off solid seasons. Despite long track records of success, many clubs were hesitant to spend significant money on an aging player best suited for DH.
Martinez signed with the New York Mets right before Opening Day and largely struggled. On the other hand, Turner signed with the Toronto Blue Jays before spring training and was one of Toronto’s best hitters.
The veteran started slowly but ended up hitting .254 with a .720 OPS (107 OPS+) with six homers and 17 doubles. Turner also provided some extra value by occasionally playing serviceable defense at the corner infield spots. Though he is mostly a DH at this point in his career, the ability to play defense once in a while should increase his market.
Two at-bats, two homers for Justin Turner 🔱 pic.twitter.com/prAeffiL5F
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2024
Turner continued his hot play after a midseason trade to the Seattle Mariners. After the deal, Turner hit in a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark but served as an important piece to the Mariners lineup. In 190 plate appearances, he hit .264/.363/.403 (128 OPS+) with five homers and seven doubles.
In both of his spots last year, Turner displayed a great approach at the plate. A typical plate appearance sees Turner working the count and not chasing pitches out of the zone. Also, he ranked amongst the game’s best with a 10.9% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate. These numbers are not far off from his career rates (9.1% walk rate and 15.5% strikeout rate).
Potential Red Flags with Justin Turner
It’s important that Turner continues to display an elite approach at the plate as he ages. However, teams will be wary of his declining power numbers. His .383 SLG was the first time he produced a slugging percentage under .400 since before he broke out with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014.
On top of a decline in actual power statistics, underlying metrics indicate that Turner is not falling victim to bad luck or ballpark misfortune. Turner has experienced a steady decline in metrics like Average Exit Velocity, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% over the past few years. These metrics declining are expected for a 40-year-old and are solid indicators that a decline is coming.
It’s great that Turner can see a lot of pitches and swing only at ones that will produce positive results. But, if he no longer has enough power, his homers will become fly ball outs, and doubles could become singles.
Potential Landing Spots
Turner performed so well in Seattle last season that the team has expressed interest in retaining him. The veteran was a bright spot in an anemic Mariners offense and provided a stable presence on a young, collapsing team. With Seattle looking to contend and support a dominant pitching staff, a reunion with Turner makes sense.
One of his former teams, the Boston Red Sox, has been rumored to be interested in adding right-handed pop. Boston reportedly wanted to re-sign Turner last winter, especially at the strong recommendation of manager Alex Cora.
Reports indicate that Boston will act aggressively this offseason. Though Turner is not the big free agent fish that will satisfy an angry fan base, he represents a useful complimentary piece that could lengthen the lineup. Plus, his offensive profile fits great in Fenway Park and could help mitigate some of his declining slugging metrics.
Market Value and Projections
Spotract projects Turner’s market value at $7.7 million on a one-year deal. It makes sense that Turner will sign for less money than the $13 million he landed last offseason. However, almost $8 million might be on the high end due to his age and declining slugging.
Teams will have to determine if he can project to be productive next year and experience a significant decline later. Turner is a free agent who provides value with his bat and leadership. He offers little with the glove and is a slow runner. If he doesn’t hit, his contract will surely be a sunk cost, and teams are as wary as ever of being stuck in that situation.
Main Photo: © Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
