Texas Rangers free agent Carson Kelly spent most of the 2024 season fighting to get back into form. The defensive star catcher and former second-round pick has had to overcome a series of injuries in the past three years. He spent most of last season in a duel for the top catching spot on the Rangers’ depth chart with Jonah Heim. Despite his run of bad luck, Kelly is one of the highest-ranking catchers among MLB free agents this offseason.
Defensive Star Catcher On The Rebound After Injury-Plagued Run
Carson Kelly‘s Player Profile
Kelly was the St. Louis Cardinals’ 86th pick in the 2012 draft. He spent four seasons rising through the Cardinals organization before seeing his first stretch in the majors in 2016.
His first breakout season came in 2019, his first full season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That year Kelly showed off his power potential slashing .245/.348/.478 with 18 home runs and 47 RBI in 111 games. He followed that season with another fine season with Arizona in 2021 slugging 13 home runs and 46 RBI in 98 games and a .754 OPS.
A Spate of Injuries Set Back His Career
But injuries have been a factor in disrupting Kelly’s progress. A toe fracture first sent him to the injured list in May of 2021. He had barely been back a month when he fractured his right wrist.
After a strong showing in the second half of 2021, Kelly again went on the IL with a left oblique strain in May of 2022. Returning to the lineup in June he never quite got his hitting going the remainder of the 2022 season.
Bouncing back Kelly was hitting .320 with a .934 OPS in 10 spring training games with Arizona in 2023. On March 20, he was struck on the right forearm by a pitch thrown by Chicago White Sox Gregory Santos. That resulted in a fractured forearm. The Diamondbacks released Kelly on August 15, 2023.
Offensive And Defensive Statistics
Major League Baseball currently lists Kelly as a 1.9 WAR. The six-foot two, two hundred ten-pound backstop has shown his power during healthy stretches. His 2024 OPS of .687 was just above his career average of .680. But that showed improvement from his prior injury-plagued season of 2022-23 (.616 and .565 OPS, respectively).
Defensively, Kelly ranks well above average in Fielding Run Value and Caught Stealing Above Average according to Baseball Savant. He shows average Batting Run Value, although he doesn’t qualify officially due to limited playing time.
Market Value And Comparisons
According to Spotrac.com, Kelly’s current market value is $2.2M per year. That is slightly higher than the $1.17M he made with the Detroit Tigers and the Texas Rangers in 2024. His market value is likely lower than it might be had he not been hampered by injuries.
Considering his going price, Kelly, 30, stacks up well against other catchers at his level. Free agent Cincinnati Reds catcher Luke Maile’s market value is $1.8M despite Maile’s numbers being well below Kelly’s.
New York Yankees catcher, Jose Trevino, 30, is valued at $6M despite hitting at a below average rate. Atlanta Braves catcher Victor Caratini, 31, is Kelly’s closest likeness both offensively and defensively. Caratini is set to earn $6M for the Braves in 2025.
Teams With Notable Interest In Kelly
His bad luck has definitely affected Kelly’s salary and roster placement in recent years. He’s currently ranked fifth on the free agent catcher list by MLB and he matches Caratini’s 1.9 WAR from last season.
One team with significant need of support at the catching position is the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs’ mid-season acquisition Christian Bethancourt claimed free agency after regular season play ended in September. That leaves Chicago’s Northsiders with only Miguel Amaya, 25, at catcher.
For a big market team in need of help, Carson Kelly would be a good fit in 2025. The defensive star catcher would elevate the lineup and provide cover for Amaya as he grows into the position.
Main Photo Credits: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
