Free agent starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi is poised to be one of the most sought-after arms this winter. Although Kikuchi has been one of MLB’s more inconsistent pitchers since his 2019 debut, teams have long drooled over his potential.
The Japanese left-hander has always flashed potential, but it wasn’t until his mid-season trade to the Houston Astros that he found the consistency that teams have been hoping for throughout his six-year MLB journey. Kikuchi looks to turn the strongest stretch of his career into a huge free-agent contract.
Yusei Kikuchi Free Agent Profile
Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2022 following an inconsistent tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Toronto executives believed that talented Kikuchi could elevate his production and consistency by tweaking his pitch usage.
In his first year with the Blue Jays, Kikuchi increased his fastball usage by five percent and his slider usage by around 11 percent. He also learned a curveball and decreased his cutter usage. These adjustments led to not only a career-best strikeout rate but also to a significant improvement in his walk and home run rates.
His struggles continued to start in 2023 but quickly improved after he began using his curveball more. Sticking with the adjustments helped Kikuchi produce by far the best season of his career. His 110 ERA+ indicates his performance was 10 percent better than the league average and beat his previous career-high of 93.
Kikuchi started 2024 strong. In his first 10 starts, he posted a 2.64 ERA with 61 strikeouts and 13 walks in 58 innings. Unfortunately, his production cratered right after. In his next 12 starts, his final 12 as a Blue Jay, Kikuchi tossed 57 2/3 innings with a 687 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 17 walks.
Kikuchi Blossomed in Houston
Despite the struggles, Houston still gave up a big package to acquire him at the trade deadline. While man raised their eyebrows at the trade, Kikuchi proved to be a steal for the Astros. In 10 starts, he tossed 60 innings and posted a 2.70 ERA (147 ERA+) with an elite 31.8 % strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
Like the Blue Jays in 2022, the Astros saw Kikuchi as a talented, yet underachieving pitcher that could benefit from some adjustments. Houston agreed with Toronto that Kikuchi possessed a solid fastball that should be featured in his repertoire. However, Houston had Kikuchi significantly increase his slider usage at the expense of his curveball.
These adjustments led to immediate success and finally led to a Kikuchi breakout that many have waited for. Additionally, Kikuchi profiled as a pitcher that would likely thrive in the postseason. Kikuchi posted a very high strikeout rate and better-than-average walk and home run rates. Modern baseball executives place a high value on pitchers who limit contact and free passes in October. Unfortunately, the Astros were eliminated before the improved Kikuchi could make an appearance.
Nonetheless, Kikuchi’s dominance has set him up nicely for a big payday this winter. Pitching is expensive, and high-quality arms typically cash in. Even at 33, Kikuchi should earn a lucrative multi-year deal.
Potential Landing Spots
Teams across the league will be interested in Kikuchi. Bowman and MLB Trade Rumors both connect the left-hander to the Astros and Baltimore Orioles. Both World Series contenders need quality pitching and might not be inclined to hand out long-term deals.
Additionally, Kikuchi fits teams looking to take the next step in 2025. The Washington National saw many young players and top prospects develop last year. Washington could use a solid veteran at the top of the rotation to take pressure off of other promising starters. Plus, Kikuchi could provide stability that speeds up the rebuilding process and puts the team into Wild Card contention as soon as next year.
Lastly, teams like the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds are talented but coming off disappointing campaigns. The pressure for these teams to contend next year is high, and Kikuchi could represent an intriguing free-agent addition.
Projected Market and Value
Jim Bowden of The Athletic projects Kikuchi to land a three-year, $42 million contract. MLB Trade Rumors predicted he will land a three-year, $60 million contract.
His age will limit the length of the deal, but he could earn a guarantee on the higher end of his projections. His agent, Scott Boras, has a reputation for landing his clients larger-than-expected contracts. Additionally, Kikuchi stands out as a quality pitcher who does not have a qualifying offer attached to him.
This means that not only will teams not have to guarantee him five or more years, but they also won’t have to give up a draft pick. Teams might view Kikuchi’s production with Houston as legitimate and sustainable. This, plus his lower overall acquisition cost, could create a huge market for his services.
Main Photo: © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
