David Robertson might be an afterthought on the relief pitcher free agent market. However, he has been one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball over the past few years. Even though he turns 40 in early April and is one of the oldest free agents this offseason, Robertson is one of the best arms available and is coming off one of the best seasons of his 16-year career.
David Robertson Free Agent Profile
Last season, his first with the Texas Rangers, Robertson produced a 3.00 ERA (132 ERA+) with 99 strikeouts in 72 innings. Furthermore, underlying metrics indicate that his great performance is sustainable. Robertson’s 33.3 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 96th percentile in MLB. He also ranked among baseball’s best at generating groundballs, limiting barrels, and generating whiffs.
Even at his age, Robertson averaged 94.7 mph on his sinker and 93.3 mph on his cutter. He doesn’t throw a straight four-seam fastball but will heavily rely on an elite Mariano Rivera-esque cutter. That pitch, which he threw 63.4 percent of the time, was worth a Run Value of 19 in 2024. These impressive peripherals indicate Robertson deserved his success and isn’t due for severe regression soon.
In fact, the Alabama native provided similar production in 2023, split between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. That year, he tossed 65 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA (143 ERA+) and 18 saves. Just like in 2024, Robertson posted elite strikeout and whiff rates and excelled at inducing ground balls.
Veteran Value
Another enticing aspect of signing Robertson is the value he provides beyond the stat sheet. He is a proven, battle-tested, versatile arm that can handle any situation. As a reliever who can close, set up, or put out fires in the middle innings, Robertson will give his new manager valuable flexibility that will play in both the regular and postseason.
Yes, age is a concern, but he has a reputation for caring for his body and relying on intelligence, not stuff, to retire hitters. These traits help older pitchers last longer, and Robertson is worth the risk on an expected one-year deal. His stats and underlying metrics raise no red flags that would indicate severe imminent regression.
Age will catch up to Robertson eventually, but he seems like a solid bet for 2025. Among relievers with 40 or more innings last season, the veteran ranked ninth with a 1.9 fWAR and 15th in strikeout percentage. Only five other relievers ranked in the top 30 fWAR (min 40 innings) are free agents this winter, four if Nick Martinez accepts his Qualifying Offer.
Contract Projection
It’s unlikely that Robertson will sign a contract this offseason longer than one year. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Mets two winters ago and a one-year deal worth $11.5 million last winter. His Rangers contract paid him $5 million last season, guaranteed him $1.5 million for declining a $7 million mutual option for 2025 (which he did), and pays $1 million in deferrals annually from 2027 to 2031.
It’s unclear if he will have to, or want to, sign a deal with that type of structure again this offseason. Either way, declining his $7 million option indicates that Robertson expects to secure a larger guarantee as a free agent.
Even at his age, a one-year deal for someone with his production and track record seems like a steal. Contenders are always looking to add pitching at the trade deadline and are always shocked by the prices. Adding Robertson now as a free agent will likely make a World Series contender’s shopping easier and more efficient this summer.
Main Photo Credits: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
