The Detroit Tigers called up number six overall baseball prospect Jackson Jobe from Triple-A Toledo on Monday, continuing to give their young farm system a chance to impress. Jobe is likely to be the last move for the team in a mad dash for an American League Wild Card spot.
Since having a 66-66 record on August 26, the Tigers have marched to an 82-74 record, an impressive 16-8 stretch. The team occupies the number five seed in the American League, tied with the Kansas City Royals and one game ahead of the Minnesota Twins. To put their comeback in perspective, their playoff chances have increased by 77 percent over 30 days.
While the Tigers offense has been below average, their pitching has been the story of the season. Led by left-handed ace Tarik Skubal and cashing in a dominant first half from right-hander Jack Flaherty, the team’s rotation looks almost ready. Could Jobe be the one that pushes them over the hump?
The @Tigers call up RHP Jackson Jobe, @MLBPipeline‘s No. 6 overall prospect. pic.twitter.com/fHp3CaprC9
— MLB (@MLB) September 23, 2024
What About Tigers Prospect Jackson Jobe Is So Special?
Jackson Jobe, the first-round pick for the Tigers back in 2021, ranked in the organization’s top three prospects in three separate yearly rankings. According to his 2021 Baseball Savant scouting grade, scouts referred to him as “one of the best and most advanced high school pitching prospects in recent years.”
When looking at his current scouting grades, all four of his pitches rate above average. His slider grades at the highest, a score of 70, with scouts stating the pitch reaches above 3,000 rotations per minute and a 10-17 inch horizontal break. Just by that statistic alone, if we were to place Jobe in a category for horizontal movement, he’s automatically a top-10, if not the best.
The 2024 report also states that he had dropped his changeup for a more controlled cutter, topping at 88-92 miles per hour. Once again, that brings his pitch to around the top 15 if it maxes out at 92. His pitching speed variety, going as high as 97 with his four-seamer to 78 with his curveball, allows for more variety and timing disruptions against hitters. He’s even peaked at 101 during spring training in 2024.
Jobe’s statistics, for what they’re worth, back up the raving reviews from scouts.
Jackson Jobe’s Statistics
Jobe’s 2022 campaign, his first after being drafted, was not really special. Throwing 77 1/3 innings, he carried a solid 1.280 WHIP alongside a 3.84 earned run average. He also racked up 81 strikeouts, a little more than the average nine strikeouts per nine innings.
He had issues with control, however, throwing 30 walks and 14 home runs during the 2022 season. Jobe ended the year being promoted to High-A West Michigan, still rated as the organization’s number one prospect.
In 2023, Jobe had an unbelievable breakout year. To put his season into perspective, he only threw six walks in 64 innings of work, or a walk rate of less than one per nine innings. His strikeout rate increased well above nine per nine innings, settling at nearly 13. In addition, his WHIP remained under one, clocking in at 0.984.
Issues with control decreased significantly, and he did give up fewer home runs on average. Jobe did, however, have issues with his back that caused him to start late in the season. But once he got going, he pitched extremely well.
This year, Jobe has had some notable regressions. However, they were mainly caused by the increasing skill level rather than mechanics. Jobe sported his lowest-ever season ERA at 2.36, alongside a 1.124 WHIP. His strikeout rate remained over nine per nine innings, while he only surrendered four home runs in 91 2/3 innings pitched.
However, he did issue 45 walks, increasing his per nine innings rate to 4.5. In addition, he only just had his Toledo debut a few weeks ago and only pitched nine total innings there. Jobe could likely look inexperienced and overmatched in his first major league appearance, or he could surprise us. Either way, a jump that quick is bound to have an effect.
How Does Jobe Fit Into The Staff?
Outside of Skubal, the Tigers’ rotation is sustainable at the surface level. Reese Olson, a 2018 13th-rounder from the Milwaukee Brewers, has been the next-best pitcher. He sports a respectable 1.191 WHIP while only surrendering seven home runs and 33 walks, and racking up 98 strikeouts. He’s not overwhelming, but he’s serviceable.
For the other guys such as Casey Mize, Keider Montero, and Kenta Maeda, their stats are less impressive. All three have a WHIP of around 1.300 or higher while their ERA is between 4.00 and 5.00. The more redeemable quality is they don’t give up a lot of walks, but they surrender hits. The killer is their 1.3 home runs per nine innings rate. They’re not back-breaking pitchers, but the home run rate should be concerning.
For the bullpen, the situation is better. Led by left-hander Tyler Holton and closer Jason Foley, most players in the bullpen are reliable, with WHIPs under 1.000 and home run rates well under one. The only weak spot is bullpen convert Beau Brieske. He currently sports a 4.4 walk rate per nine and an average 1.346 WHIP.
For Jobe, it really depends on where he fits best. Jobe has only pitched into the seventh inning once in his career, with most of his starts lasting five innings, or six on a good day. It’s good enough to give him a spot early in the season and build up his stamina, but is it good enough to take a risk like that with postseason implications on the line?
The answer is yes. Jobe is simply too valuable to toss into the bullpen. He has already proven himself as a starter. If he can give you five innings, have a long reliever such as Brieske or Maeda, if he gets moved there, relieve him. Jobe is good, very good when he is on top of his game. In a playoff race like this, the Tigers need all the help they can get. Jackson Jobe might be the one that helps the Tigers earn their first playoff berth in a decade.
Photo Credit: © GREG WOHLFORD/ERIE TIMES-NEWS / USA TODAY NETWORK
