The Pittsburgh Pirates rotation had a very pedestrian 2024 season, finishing in the lower five positions for most major statistical categories. The pitching staff composed a 4.19 earned run average (ERA), along with an uninspiring 1.32 WHIP. In addition, the staff threw 490 walks and 1289 strikeouts, also in the lower-five for the National League.
How The Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation Could Become The Most Fearful In MLB
However, one obvious bright spot in their rotation is Cy Young and Rookie of the Year-favorite right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes. The 2023 first-overall pick has been nearly untouchable, hurling a 2.07 ERA with 158 strikeouts. He’s undoubtedly the ace of this team, along with a WHIP under one, and a team-leading .7 home runs per nine innings (HR/9).
Another pitcher, 2020 second-rounder Jared Jones, has been decent. Despite sporting a 4.14 ERA with a 1.4 HR/9, his 1.18 WHIP and 125 strikeouts show he has the potential to be a number three starter or a number two. If Jones could get his opposing hitter percentiles down, it’s another gem for an up-and-coming franchise.
However, other pitchers such as Mitch Keller, while serviceable, are not quite starter material. Luis Ortiz, who became their fifth starter in July, has been volatile and inconsistent. The team needs to find more sturdy, MLB-ready pitchers who can strike out batters and keep contact low. Luckily, the Pirates have four of these guys waiting to get the call from the minors.
1) RHP Bubba Chandler
(2024) Double/Triple-A: 119.2 IP; 3.08 ERA; 81 hits/19 BB (1.02 WHIP); 148 K (11 K/9); .189 OBA; 9 HR (.8 HR/9)
The number 38 overall prospect in baseball, and the current number one prospect for the Pirates, is a potential partner to Skenes in the future. Chandler, a 2021 third-rounder, has had a breakout minor-league campaign, with all of his stat lines improving from 2023. This was done between Double and Triple-A, not a lower level to add substance to his argument.
Chandler pitched the most innings in a season this year while knotting his lowest-recorded WHIP of his career. A 1.02 WHIP is an eye-popping number, especially for a 22-year-old minor-leaguer. His 148 strikeouts, also his highest in his career, mark a consistent level of a K/9 rate above 10 throughout his three seasons.
What’s even more incredible is how consistent Chandler has been this season. Chandler only had an above-. 200 average to hitters in a month, May, when it was .200 exactly. In the same month, he posted an ugly 1.59 WHIP with 10 walks over 11.1 innings. Since then, his June, July, and August WHIP all came in well below one. In addition, his KK: B ratio would be anywhere from 4:1 to as high as 10:1.
What’s important to note is that his last seven games have been at Triple-A, and he’s been really good. In those games, he has an ERA of just 1.83, a WHIP of 1.04, and 54 strikeouts over 39.1 innings. In addition, he’s only surrendered two home runs. His strong year also netted him a call to the 2024 futures game.
It’s not hard to see Chandler getting the call to the big leagues at some point during the 2025 season. However, if the Pirates improve and push for a wild card spot and Chandler shines at Triple-A, he could be a vital asset to the team during that stretch. Expect him to be either a number two or three starter in the Pirates Rotation if he pans out.
2) RHP Braxton Ashcraft
2024 Double/Triple-A: 73 IP; 2.84 ERA; 66 hits/12 BB (1.07 WHIP); 77 K (9.1 K.9); .234 OBA; 6 HR (.8 HR/9)
It’s a shame Ashcraft has been plagued with injuries over the last few seasons. The soon-to-be 25-year-old dealt with a Tommy John surgery in 2021 and numerous issues with his shoulder, knee, and elbow. More recently, Ashcraft has been recovering from a forearm muscle injury since July, effectively ending his season.
However, when Ashcraft is healthy, he pitches well. Despite only starting in 14 games this year, the 2018 second rounder and number two organizational prospect doubled down on his excellent 2023 campaign. While some of his metrics did increase with his jump to Double-A, it can be agreed that he has found his potential.
Ashcroft’s stat lines show that, with his innings pitched total increasing to 73, there has been no meaningful jump in analytical metrics. His WHIP remained virtually stagnant at 1.08, while his opposing batting average held around .234. His groundout-to-air-out ratio remained under one, while his homerun-per-nine rate still continues to stay above average.
While his ERA increased, it appears to be more connected to his increase in workload rather than a change in mechanics. He did surrender 66 hits, but his walk rate remained between one and two. There is a clear level of consistency here, backed by his good play and his decrease in surrendered home runs.
The only issue, once again, is injuries. This begs the question of where Ashcroft will be comfortable and extending his longevity. If the Pirates want to play it safe, he is an excellent candidate to be the closer, replacing the struggling David Bednar. If the Pirates are desperate, however, he could be a back-rotation starter and can easily give you five innings of good baseball.
3) RHP Thomas Harrington
2024 (three teams): 117.1 IP; 2.61 ERA; 94 hits/18 BB (0.96 WHIP); 115 K (8.9 K/9); .220 OBA; 9 HR (.8 HR/9)
It’s one thing when a player is good, but it’s another thing when they get better at a more difficult level. Harrington, the Pirates’ 2022 compensatory pick, is that guy. He performed excellently at double-A, and some of his metrics even improved at triple-A.
In double-A, Harrington was already good. Over 68.1 innings, he held a WHIP strictly at one and had a 2.24 ERA. His homerun rate held at around .6, as he only surrendered four home runs during that tenure. In addition, Harrington boasted a 7.4:1 K: BB ratio, all in the span of 12 starts.
When Harrington got to triple-A, while he did see some regression, some of his stats improved. First, the bad news. His ERA increased to 3.33, and he surrendered five home runs in 46 innings. In addition, his strikeout rate decreased to 7 K/9, which could be due to the level adjustment between the two leagues.
However, Harrington’s WHIP went below one, clocking in at .93, while his opponent’s batting average decreased to .212. His groundout-to-air-out ratio remained at a whopping .64 ratio as well. So while Harrington had issues with adjusting to the league and giving up more runs, he clearly is confident in his mechanics and pitch placement. He just needs to generate more whiffs.
Harrington is clearly confident at a semi-major level but still needs more time to reach his ceiling. There is definitely a reason to expect his arrival time next year. The problem is, where will he fit in if Ashcraft and Chandler are both up? Would Harrington replace one of the other remaining pitchers in the rotation?
If Harrington doesn’t regress, expect Luis Ortiz to be relegated back to the bullpen, perhaps as a setup man. Ortiz is not good enough to be a starter, but his skills are needed in a depleted bullpen. So, yes, Harrington would be the next-best starter.
4) LHP Hunter Barco
2024 High-A and Double-A: 66 IP; 3.27 ERA; 48 hits/22 BB (1.06 WHIP); 83 K (12.5 K/9); .204 OBA; 5 HR (.8 HR/9)
The lowest-ranking and only left-hander on the list, Barco could be a sleeper for next year. The 2022 second-rounder has only recently been promoted to double-A, but his high-A stats leave a lot to look at.
In high-A alone, Barco struck out 77 batters while throwing 62 innings, a rate well over the nine strikeouts per nine innings average. He’s also not walking a ton of batters, around a three-per-nine-inning rate. However, he doesn’t surrender home runs at a high pace, once again coming in under the one per nine innings average.
Barco also has the ability to either miss bats or produce outs on contact. The left-hander’s opposing batting average dipped from a normal .236 in 2023 to a commanding .207 in 2024. In addition, his 3.34 ERA is a step down from his 3.44 average last year. Barco is a sturdy, albeit slightly inexperienced arm in a deep field.
However, Barco might be best suited for the bullpen. If the above three players were to be in the rotation or if Keller were to remain and narrow down the open spots to two, Barco would not get one of them. He’s inexperienced and needs more time.
However, if the Pirates need bullpen arms and Barco is continuing to throw well, he’s a welcome arm. He would easily replace aging flamethrower Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen with a more accurate, stuff-based arm. Barco will most likely be called up in 2026, but if injuries pile up or the bullpen falters, Barco is a great emergency option.
Main Photo Credits: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
