With the 2024 season winding down, the San Diego Padres are positioning themselves for a deep postseason run. But as October approaches, a key question lingers: What should the Friars do about their slumping All-Star closer, Robert Suarez?
As October Nears, Padres Must Address Their Closer Situation
Robert Suarez’s Recent Struggles
For most of the year, Suarez was among baseball’s elite closers, even earning his first All-Star selection. Lately, however, the lights-out pitcher from the first half of the season seems to have disappeared. Over his last 30 appearances, Suarez has managed 14 saves but has given up 15 earned runs in 30 innings. Worse still, he’s blown three of his last six save chances and allowed three home runs during that stretch.
The @WhiteSox! pic.twitter.com/X7PE8tCgar
— MLB (@MLB) September 21, 2024
One reason for Suarez’s decline could be his increased workload. With 62 innings pitched this season—far more than the 47 ⅔ and 27 ⅔ innings he pitched in 2022 and 2023, respectively—he seems to be wearing down at the most critical time of year. The former NPB star is facing more innings than ever, and the strain is starting to show.
Another potential issue is Suarez’s reliance on his four-seam fastball. While it’s an elite pitch, regularly topping 100 MPH and ranking in Baseball Savant’s 99th percentile for velocity, he’s become too dependent on it. Hitters have caught on, adjusting to the pitch he leans on most. Suarez’s other pitches, like his sinker and changeup, haven’t been used effectively to keep batters guessing. As a result, he’s become predictable, and combined with his increased workload, he’s lost the dominance that made him an All-Star.
Mike Shildt Keeping Options Open
Despite Suarez’s struggles, Padres manager Mike Shildt has stood by his closer, saying his concern level “is not very high.” However, after Friday’s 3-2 win over the Chicago White Sox, Shildt hinted that a change could be in the works. While he remains confident in Suarez, he admitted that “there’ll be consideration” for turning to other arms in the bullpen for save opportunities.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla added that Suarez needs to improve his execution and pitch mix but didn’t signal any significant changes to the approach they’ve used all season. That’s a worrying sign since it’s clear some adjustments are needed. The Padres can’t afford to wait for Suarez to get back on track, especially with the postseason looming. Fortunately, they have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, built by general manager A.J. Preller for these scenarios.
Tanner Scott: The Leading Candidate
If the Padres make a change, they won’t have to look far for a replacement. Tanner Scott, acquired from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline, has been outstanding. The southpaw boasts 21 saves, a sparkling 1.57 ERA, and 80 strikeouts this season. His ability to pair his elite fastball with a deadly slider makes him a prime candidate to take over the closer role.
“Look how much he’s using his legs. That release point has dropped because of that.”
Tom Verducci looks at some of the mechanical adjustments made by new @Padres reliever Tanner Scott since he broke into the Big Leagues. pic.twitter.com/JskDcOsK1L
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 31, 2024
Other Options: Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada
Beyond Scott, the Padres have other high-leverage arms to consider. Jason Adam has been phenomenal since joining San Diego, with a 0.78 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 appearances. If not for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ acquisition of Michael Kopech, Adam would likely be hailed as the best bullpen acquisition of the trade deadline. His combination of a sharp slider and a versatile mix of pitches, including a four-seamer, changeup, and sweeper, make him a reliable option for the ninth inning.
Jason Adam, K’ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/OTTsLtwUqY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 20, 2024
Jeremiah Estrada, despite sliding down the bullpen depth chart after the trade deadline, remains another strong candidate. The 25-year-old right-hander is having a breakout season, posting a 2.98 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 57 ⅓ innings. Estrada’s record-setting 13 consecutive strikeouts earlier this year showcases the swing-and-miss potential of his fastball and “chitter,” a hybrid pitch that blends Vulcan and circle changeups with splitter action.
Here is Jeremiah Estrada’s 13th straight K pic.twitter.com/ORyOEh5occ
— Padres Nation (@NationPadres) May 29, 2024
Time to Make a Move
Mike Shildt has earned a reputation as a patient, level-headed manager. But with the postseason around the corner, patience can only go so far. While Suarez could still be valuable in a different bullpen role, it might be time to give someone else a shot at closing. A refreshed bullpen could be just what the Padres need to thrive in October.
The Padres don’t need to give up on Suarez, but temporarily moving him out of the closer role could help him regain his All-Star form when the team needs him most. A change could make all the difference as San Diego pushes for a World Series run.
Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images
