After a breakout season in the minor leagues this year, Chicago Cubs prospect Matt Shaw faces his toughest challenge next spring.
Cubs Prospect Matt Shaw to Face Toughest Challenge in 2025
A Big Week for A Minor League Star
Shaw topped Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week with an outstanding hitting performance. The 22-year-old slashed .462/.500/1.000 on 12-for-26 hitting with seven runs, three doubles, a triple, three homers, and five RBI. He walked twice and struck out just six times in that span.
To top it off, Shaw’s 20th home run made him the Cubs organization’s first 20-20 player of the 2024 season.
A Monster Season at the Plate
Starting the season at Double-A Tennessee, Shaw slashed .279/.373/.468 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in 86 games. His promotion to Triple-A saw him up his game. In 31 games with Triple-A Iowa, Shaw is slashing .298/.389/.561 with seven homers and 17 RBI.
This season combined, Shaw is slashing .283/.375/.493 with a 147 weighted runs created plus score. He combines that with an 11 percent walk rate, an 18.4 percent strikeout rate, and a .311 average on balls in play (BABIP).
His performance this season has propelled Shaw to the number one spot on the Cubs Top 30 Prospects ahead of pitcher Cade Horton. He is now number 22 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list.
A Duel With Paredes at Third Base
The problem Shaw has is that the Cubs infield is looking pretty squared away at present. The acquisition of Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline has solidified third base.
Paredes is a natural third baseman with good hands and a solid arm. His overall play at third has been very good for the Cubs, but he has had a down year for a guy who hit 31 home runs in 2023 for Tampa Bay.
Although he’s been hitting better of late, slashing .375/.484/.375 over his last seven games, the slugging just hasn’t been what the Cubs had hoped it would be.
Shaw’s Overall Potential Might Prevail
While Shaw has below-average arm strength at third, his hitting on the whole is turning heads. He can hit for average and for power, and he hits to all parts of the ballpark. This separates him from Paredes, who is a dead pull hitter.
Shaw, who has stolen 30 bases so far this season, is faster than Paredes and shows good instincts. If he’s able to continue hitting at the big league level, he is a potential 20-20 or possibly even a 30-30 player. Only time will tell whether he’s able to excel at the top level.
Welcome to the 20/30 club, Matt Shaw!
MLB’s No. 22 prospect steals his 30th base of the season to go along with 21 homers, as he becomes the third @Cubs prospect to achieve the mark since 1999. pic.twitter.com/1U28GI1fqV
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 19, 2024
Cubs’ Middle Infield is Settled for Now
If he’s not able to secure a spot at third base, Shaw knows he’s facing an uphill battle. Gold Glovers Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are signed through 2026 and 2029, respectively.
No one would accuse these two of having a good season at the plate. Both are hitting well below their career average. But both have been stellar on defense, albeit after a sluggish start in that department as well.
Cubs Leadership Taking the Long View
Given his potential, Shaw is likely to see plenty of playing time at the big league level in 2025. A natural second baseman who first learned to play shortstop before moving to third base, he could become a valuable utility infielder.
The Cubs will likely part ways with David Bote at season’s end, and with it his $5 million salary. The fan favorite is in the last year of his contract and hasn’t been able to make headway with the big league club.
Likewise, Nick Madrigal will probably see the door after this season. One of the Cubs’ other trial third basemen this season, Madrigal proved a solid defender. But his lack of power (.037 ISO) and hard-hit rate (18.1 percent) are among the worst in the league. Not good for a player with a nearly 60 percent ground ball rate.
A Low-Risk, High-Reward Situation
Having their lineup in relatively good shape means the Cubs can bring Shaw along at whatever pace seems to fit. If he contributes at the plate early, he would be available to sub in at nearly every position in the infield. Like most young players, he will likely split his time between Triple-A and the big league club next season.
Barring a trade, the Cubs will likely sign him to an entry-level contract. With nearly $7 million in salary space created with the departure of Bote and Madrigal, there’s plenty of room on the roster for a player with his potential.
No question, Matt Shaw faces his toughest challenge this coming preseason. With his combination of hitting and fielding, power, and bat-to-ball skills, he just might shake things up.
Photo Credit: © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK
