Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola needs to regain form heading into the postseason. Nola is having a decent season overall but has had a rough stretch lately. In 30 starts this season, he has a 12-8 record with a 3.62 ERA and 174 strikeouts. 18 of those starts have been quality starts, which is tied with Chris Sale for the third-best among qualified National League starting pitchers. Nola has a 4.09 FIP and an 88 ERA- this season. Those each rank as tied for the eighth-best among qualified NL starters. Nola also has a 3.70 strikeout-to-walk rate this season. This past offseason Nola was re-signed through 2030.
One of Nola’s biggest problems has been giving up the long ball. This season, he has a 1.39 HR/9 allowed rate, ranking as the third-worst in that category among qualified NL starting pitchers and the seventh-worst in MLB overall. Nola has allowed 28 home runs in 181 1/3 innings pitched, tied for the fourth-worst in baseball. Furthermore, Nola has a 15.6% home run-to-fly ball ratio this season. Last season Nola allowed 32 home runs in 193 2/3 innings pitched, and he’s allowed at least 20 home runs in four of the last five 162-game seasons.
Phillies Pitcher Aaron Nola Must Regain His Form for Postseason
Recent Struggles
Nola has a 0-2 record and a 7.20 ERA in three September starts. That ERA ranks as the third-worst among qualified NL starting pitchers in September. He also has a 3.00 HR/9 allowed rate in September, which is the worst among qualified NL starters. Opposing batters have a .368 BABIP against Nola in September, and an .895 OPS against as well. However, he has a 30.4% strikeout rate and a 7.2% walk rate in September so far. That is the fourth-best strikeout rate among qualified NL starting pitchers this month.
Overall September Trends
September has been the worst month for Nola throughout his career. Overall, he has an 11-19 record with a 4.55 ERA in 47 regular season outings between September and October. That 4.55 ERA is the worst in a month split for Nola. In those outings, he has allowed 42 home runs, the most he has allowed in a given month split. Opposing batters have a .738 OPS against Nola in September and October during the regular season. That is the highest OPS opposing batters have against him in a month split. Nola has a 4.38 strikeout-to-walk rate in regular season outings in September and October in his career.
Postseason Implications
The way he’s pitched this last month compared to Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez has to be a legitimate candidate to start Game 2 of a playoff series for the Phillies.
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) September 15, 2024
Cristopher Sánchez has a very good chance to surpass Nola as the second starter in the rotation in the postseason. Sánchez has been having a great season, though his win-loss record does not necessarily reflect that. Aaron Nola needs to regain form to hold onto the second starter role. Zack Wheeler and Nola have led the Phillies rotation in the postseason for the last two years. That will probably change this postseason. Sánchez is red hot, carrying a 1.35 ERA in three September outings. Wheeler-Sánchez-Nola would be the optimal Phillies starting rotation in the NLDS. It is up to Phillies manager Rob Thomson to make the right decision.
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