The Philadelphia Phillies are anticipating Austin Hays‘ return from the injured list during their road trip, which should shake up their outfield alignment. On Saturday, Phillies manager Rob Thomson said the earliest Hays could return is their series against the Kansas City Royals, which starts Friday night. Thomson indicated that Hays might go on a rehab assignment, which he does not have enough major league service time to be able to reject. The Phillies outfield should look different once he returns than it had before the injury. Upon Hays’ return, expect Cal Stevenson to be optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley as the corresponding move.
Austin Hays, who hit an actual homer during Suarez’s simulated start, could go on a brief minor league assignment next week to test his hamstring before rejoining the #Phillies, also likely in Kansas City. https://t.co/yNVJCKKyGI
— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) August 17, 2024
Before the injury, Hays was solidifying his role as the Phillies’ starting left fielder. In 10 games since his trade from the Baltimore Orioles, he has a .263/.282/.395 line with one home run and four RBI. Hays has a 87 wRC+ and a .346 BABIP in that span. However, in his absence, Johan Rojas has been excellent at the plate. In eight games since Hays has been out, Rojas has a .296/.345/.370 line with no home runs and five RBI, along with a 103 wRC+ and a .381 BABIP in that span. Additionally, he has a .333/.389/.394 line with a 124 wRC+ and a .423 BABIP in 10 August games. Rojas should be in the lineup more often rather than riding the bench after Hays returns.
The Phillies Outfield Should Look Like This Back After Austin Hays’ Return
Interesting Splits
The respective splits of Hays, Rojas, Brandon Marsh, and Weston Wilson create a playing time dilemma for the Phillies outfield. Marsh has a .770 OPS and a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2024. While Wilson has better numbers this season against righties than both Rojas and Hays, he is not in the discussion for an expanded role in these situations. Rojas has a .643 OPS and an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Hays has a .586 OPS and a 66 wRC+ against right-handers. Statistically speaking, Rojas should be playing instead of Hays against righties. This also would see Marsh play his best defensive position, left field, more often.
Wilson does factor in against left-handed pitchers. This season, he sports a 1.322 OPS and a 253 wRC+ against southpaws in limited playing time. Wilson has played in 18 major league games this season and platooned with Marsh in left field for a few weeks. Hays has also hit southpaws well. He has a .906 OPS and a 156 wRC+ against left-handers. Rojas and Marsh haven’t fared as well in those matchups. Rojas has a .457 OPS and a 27 wRC+ against lefties, while Marsh has a .523 OPS and a 48 wRC+. If playing time were determined based on splits, Marsh and Rojas would start against right-handed pitchers while Wilson and Hays start against lefties.
What Should Happen
One of Marsh or Rojas should start against left-handed pitchers for defensive reasons. Marsh and Rojas have more Outs Above Average and a better Fielding Run Value in center field than Hays. The idea of determining their playing time based on righty/lefty splits sounds great on paper, but not in practice. With that in mind, a platoon with Marsh and Rojas in center field is the best option. Wilson did hit for the cycle last week and has performed well in limited major league playing time this season. However, Hays has earned the right to start in left field every day.
While Marsh has improved against left-handed pitching recently, Thomson should truly implement a platoon with Rojas this time around if Hays remains an everyday starter. Rojas has been too good at the plate lately to be forced out of the lineup regularly. A platoon with Rojas and Hays would also work if Thomson chooses to go that route. Initially, this should be the option the Phillies select. This allows Hays to ease back into the lineup. Once that happens a Marsh/Rojas center field platoon is the way to go. Those are the most realistic options unless Thomson decides that Wilson and Hays should start against left-handed pitchers.
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