The spotlight on Roki Sasaki intensified greatly this spring after some drama regarding his contract. The star waited until right before spring camp began to sign a deal with his team, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball. Though a reason was not confirmed, many speculated the cause stemmed from his desire to be posted to MLB as soon as possible.
According to several executives, Roki Sasaki might be staying for another season in Japan as opposed to being posted this winter like originally planned.
(Via @BNightengale) pic.twitter.com/bfZ0jDr9wl
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 18, 2024
Well, that drama might have been for nothing. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the Japanese star might be having a change of heart regarding his timeline to America. Nightengale writes that Sasaki would stay in Japan for one more season since he has not had an elite season as he expected.
Report: Roki Sasaki to Stay in Japan Next Season, Delay His MLB Arrival
At first glance, his 2.15 ERA in 71 innings looks great. However, examining his performance within the entire context of his season clouds the situation. Sasaki missed time in June and July due to arm discomfort and condition. Now, the righty could miss time after taking a comebacker off his Achilles during his outing on August 16.
Along with the injuries, Sasaki has not been as dominant this season as he was in prior years. His 4.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio represents the highest of his career. Also, Sasaki’s RA/9 and strikeouts-per-nine would be his worst since his rookie year in 2021.
This winter, rumors circulated that Sasaki wanted his team to post him after this year instead of 2025. However, it seems that Sasaki would rather reset this winter and join MLB after a return to dominance in 2025. This would make sense, especially considering the financial benefits of waiting one more year.
Financial Implication of Sasaki’s Arrival in America
Per the posting agreement between MLB and NPB, players under a certain age and service-time threshold will be classified as international amateur free agents. If posted after this season, MLB would classify Sasaki as an international amateur free agent. He would thus only be eligible for a rookie contract.
In this situation, think of the Los Angeles Angels signing Shohei Ohtani. Under that contract, the Angels received six years of control over him, three at less than $1 million, and three via arbitration. This significantly limits the earning potential of both Sasaki and the Marines (via the fee the team would receive when posting him). Because of this, there is a real possibility that the Marines would refuse to post Sasaki this winter no matter how well his season went.
For Sasaki to have no limit on his earning potential, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga this past offseason, he would need to wait until after his 25th birthday. That takes place after the 2026 season. That said, it appears money isn’t the prime motivator for Sasaki in his quest to join the best league in the world. It’s not impossible that he rebounds in 2025 and convinces the Marines to post him that winter.
No matter when he comes to America, Sasaki has already developed into one of the brightest stars in baseball. He’s not only dominated in the Nippon Professional Baseball league but also excelled on international stages like the World Baseball Classic.
1️⃣0️⃣2️⃣ MPH‼️
Roki Sasaki has been lights out for Japan 😳
(via @WBCBaseball)pic.twitter.com/DawdamblO7
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 20, 2023
Many fans were understandably excited this past winter to hear that Roki Sasaki wanted to start his MLB career immediately and be posted after 2024. Unfortunately, it seems MLB fans will have to wait at least one more season.
Photo Credit: © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
