Amid a resurgent season with the New York Mets, Sean Manaea is pitching his way into the qualifying offer conversation. Manaea has not pitched at this high of a level in quite some time. Winning consecutive starts for the first time this season, he pitched another gem on Monday, allowing six hits over seven innings with 10 strikeouts and zero walks. In his last two starts, Manaea has tossed 14 scoreless innings, allowing eight hits, striking out 21 and walking one.
For just the second time in his nine-year career, Manaea has struck out at least 21 batters over two starts (he struck out 22 batters in 2021 with the Oakland Athletics) and the first time in three years he’s had back-to-back seven-inning starts. This is also the first time since 2016 that Manaea has had back-to-back seven-inning starts with one or fewer walks.
Following Monday’s 6-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, Manaea is now 8-4 with a 3.30 ERA. New York has won eight of his last 10 starts. He is also the only Mets pitcher with over 100 strikeouts, with Luis Severino not too far off at 96. Likely to opt out of his $13.5 million deal for 2025, the 32-year-old lefty might be worth a qualifying offer.
Sean Manaea joins Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden as the only pitchers in @Mets history with 7+ IP, 10+ K and no runs allowed in consecutive starts. #LGM
— Jonathan Baron (@jmb9191) August 5, 2024
Mets Pitcher Sean Manaea Emerging as a Strong Qualifying Offer Candidate
Mets star first baseman Pete Alonso, a free agent after this season, was always sure to receive a qualifying offer. While he will almost certainly turn down the one-year deal at the end of 2024, Manaea might not. Last season, the qualifying offer was $20.325 million and was turned down by the seven players who received it. But the qualifying offer is as strategic as anything else.
For most teams, signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer will cost them one or more draft picks. Which draft picks are forfeited varies depending on the previous year’s payroll and luxury tax. Signing Manaea for $20 million in 2025 seems steep compared to the $16-17 million he’d likely get in free agency. Not to mention Manaea could field offers extending beyond just 2025 and with an option like the Mets gave him.
Manaea’s brilliant pair of starts are just two of a solid eight-start stretch going back to June 26th. Over those eight starts, the veteran southpaw has a record of 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 49 strikeouts. Manaea’s season ERA has also dropped from 4.16 to 3.30.
Last season, the San Francisco Giants moved Manaea to the bullpen after he posted a 4.82 ERA in 10 games as a starter. He started throwing a sweeper down the stretch, which has become his main put-away pitch. But it’s his revitalized four-seam fastball that he uses to get ahead in counts that has been the most impressive. With it, Manaea is on pace for a career-best season which could not come at a better time after losing Kodai Senga for the rest of the year.
Given the penalties, making a qualified offer to Manaea would work to the Mets’ advantage. Clubs may be hesitant to sign the lefty, and even if he rejected the offer, New York could easily re-sign him. If he accepted it, then the Mets have a pitcher potentially earning slightly more than he deserves next season. However, if Sean Manaea continues his recent form, the investment could be justified.
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