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Pressing Decision On Former Red Sox Top Prospect Looming

In 2018, right-handed pitcher Bryan Mata was ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the Boston Red Sox system. His high-graded fastball, strong off-speed arsenal, and starting-caliber build made him one of Boston’s most intriguing assets. But since then, it’s been a grueling and unexpected journey for Mata. And now, the Red Sox have under three days to act. Will Boston continue to house Bryan Mata in its ranks? That question will be decided soon, as a pressing decision on the former Red Sox top prospect is looming large.

Pressing Decision Looming on Former Red Sox Top Prospect Bryan Mata

Mata’s Up And Downs In The Minor Leagues

Bryan Mata signed with the Red Sox in early 2016 for $25,000 at just 16 years old. A strong Dominican Summer League campaign months later led Boston to move the Venezuela native to Low-A with the Greenville Drive, where he was the youngest player in the league. He pitched well in 2017, throwing 77 innings with a 3.74 ERA. His next season came with the Salem Red Sox at High-A. He improved, posting a 3.50 ERA in 17 starts. Things were looking pretty good for Mata at just 19 years old. Coming into 2019, he slightly moved down MLB.com’s prospect rankings and sat eighth on the list. 

He continued on his path to start 2019. In just over 50 innings with Salem, he had a low 1.75 ERA, prompting a call-up to Double-A with the Portland Sea Dogs. That came with his first obstacle – a struggling 5.03 ERA in 53 ⅔ innings. Still, it was another fine campaign that ended with an overall ERA below 3.50. Entering 2020, Mata figured to keep rising through the Red Sox ranks. That was coupled with his return to the title of Boston’s fourth-best prospect. 

The pandemic changed things, with the MiLB season canceled across every level. Mata worked out at an alternate site to keep development steady. In 2021, he joined the Red Sox for spring training. But he was shut down due to soreness in his right triceps. Then, the worst occurred: a torn UCL in his right elbow. Mata needed Tommy John surgery at just 21 years old. He was ruled out for all of 2021 and aimed at a comeback in 2022. He entered that season as Boston’s eighth-ranked minor leaguer. 

Mata Rebounds, Then Slumps In Red Sox System

Despite missing over a year of baseball, Mata came back strong in 2022. After two quick rehab assignments, the Venezuelan returned to Double-A with Portland. After struggling in 2019, it was a different story in 2022. Mata dominated opponents in just under 50 innings, striking out 58 and sporting a 1.85 ERA. That was reason enough for the Red Sox to promote him to Triple-A for the first time in his career. With the Worcester Red Sox, Mata was still strong. He had a 3.47 ERA in over 23 innings of work. Mata struggled with walks as his WHIP rose from 1.192 to 1.457 as he changed levels. Still, things were on track for the international signee.

When 2023 arrived, Mata was Boston’s seventh-best prospect. It was expected that his growth, similar to other Sox prospects this season, would continue and a shot at the big leagues would arrive. But the direct opposite occurred. Mata missed over four months due to injury and pitched just 27 innings. Those frames weren’t pretty either, as he ended the year with a 6.33 ERA. His control again crumbled, averaging over a walk per inning. His 2.185 WHIP was by far the worst of his career. It looked like most of his progression had vanished and, entering 2024, he wasn’t a highly recognized prospect, sitting at 27th.

The current campaign has been more of the same for Mata, who has dealt with a hamstring injury and shoulder issues. He didn’t make his season debut until May 13 and missed a month shortly after. His walk numbers have plummeted, which is a positive sign. But he still owns a 4.71 ERA. His recent performances, though, have been more impressive than previous ones. Mata has pitched at four different levels in 2024 as he tries to build himself back up. And in mid-July, his long tenure in the Red Sox organization is now at a crossroads.

Tough Decision for Red Sox Regarding Bryan Mata

The Red Sox currently have an ultimatum to deal with when it comes to Mata. He is currently out of minor league options. Mata has been on a rehab assignment, but that hits its maximum length on July 15. So, by Monday, Boston has three options: activate the former top prospect, designate him for assignment, or place him on the injured list. With the injured list unlikely, it really comes down to the first two possibilities. 

News broke on Friday afternoon that Mata was in Boston with the club ahead of its big series against the Kansas City Royals. But it isn’t to get activated, at least for right now. According to the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey, Mata is there to throw a bullpen in front of Red Sox officials. He did that on Friday before they kicked off their weekend series. Then, he’ll go back to Worcester to throw a couple of innings on Sunday. There will be less than one day between that outing and Boston’s final decision regarding Mata. 

The Red Sox have already made a roster change since the news broke that Mata was there. Reliever Justin Slaten landed on the IL on Friday due to elbow inflammation. Cam Booser was activated in a corresponding move after being sent down earlier in the week. Mata’s decision will come down to the wire, with a likely result coming late this weekend. And while he’s there and has a locker, nothing is set in stone. It’s time for Mata and the Red Sox, together, to play the waiting game. The ultimate decision will decide the future of a once-promising prospect.

 

Photo Credit: © WooSox/Ashley Green / USA TODAY NETWORK

Zach Goldman

Zach Goldman

Zach Goldman is a graduate of Syracuse University, where he spent four years covering the college's sports. He has an obsession for all things baseball.

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