The Washington Nationals young starting rotation has emerged as a strength of the team this season. However, as we enter the second half of the season, the Nationals will have to be mindful of their workload. MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker are all on track to shatter their career highs in innings.
How The Nationals Will Deal With Their Young Starters Workload
Gore Conundrum
In his time in the MLB, Gore has a history of starting seasons strong before fading and seeing his stuff diminish. In 2022, Gore posted a 1.71 ERA in his first two months in San Diego before seeing his season go off the rails, with the young LHP getting shut down in July. It was a similar story in 2023, with Gore posting a solid 3.57 ERA heading into June before struggling in the dog days of summer. It seems to be happening again this season, with the 25-year-old holding a 2.91 ERA entering June but struggling after Memorial Day. He had a 5.13 ERA in June, and things only got worse in July, when he posted a 6.59 ERA in three starts. This has seen his ERA go over 4 heading into the All-Star break, which is a discouraging sign for a pitcher with so much promise.
After a big velocity spike in the offseason, he was gaining 1.5 MPH on his fastball from 2023. Gore has steadily lost velocity as the season has gone on. In April, his fastball averaged 96.7 MPH, while it has clocked in at 96 so far in July. Given his history, the Nationals should be mindful of Gore’s workload going forward. He threw a career high 136 1/3 IP last season, and now with the left hander approaching 100 innings it will be fascinating to see how they proceed.
How Will They Manage Irvin
Jake Irvin has been the Nationals ace this season but is set to shatter his career high in innings. He set a career-high last season, throwing 143 1/3 innings at Triple-A Rochester and with the Nationals. He is already at 112 IP this year and is set to make one more start before the All-Star break. While he’s been fantastic, he did not have his best stuff in his last start against the Mets. His fastball velocity was at a season low, and he gave up six runs. Coming off an 8-inning masterclass and facing the same team twice in a week explains some of the issues, but Irvin will be one to monitor. He has already had Tommy John Surgery, which amplifies risk.
The Nationals need length from their starters. With a bullpen that is also taxed, and Irvin gives them length, it will be a tricky line to walk. However, Irvin has established himself as a piece for the future, so protecting his arm should be a top priority. If his velocity continues to leak, the Nationals will be put in a tough spot.
How Far Will Washington Push Parker
Mitchell Parker’s emergence this season has been a pleasant surprise. Before this season, he did not figure into the team’s long-term plans, but he has opened his eyes with his performance this season. In 91 2/3 IP, Parker has posted a 3.44 ERA and has been very consistent. Parker has flipped the switch after struggling with walks in the minor leagues, with a sparkling 1.87 BB/9. This newfound command has taken Parker’s game to the next level. However, he is also approaching a career-high in innings. After throwing 124 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester, he has thrown 95 2/3 between the big leagues and his one start at Triple-A Rochester. Unlike Gore or Irvin, Parker has shown no signs of diminishing stuff. His workload will still need to be monitored.
Conclusion
They are in a tough spot because they need innings. A lot of their young starters are set to smash career highs in innings. Davey Martinez and Mike Rizzo are now in the unenviable position of trying to balance this out.
Main Photo Credits: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
